Zeldin leads Foley in high-profile State Senate race

ALBANY - In Long Island's most high-profile race for State Senate, challenger Lee Zeldin is ahead of incumbent Brian X. Foley by 16 percentage points, according to a poll of likely voters, out yesterday.

The Siena College Research Institute found Zeldin, a Republican lawyer, leads Foley, a freshman Democrat, 53 percent and 37 percent among people expecting to cast ballots on Tuesday. Ten percent were undecided or don't plan to vote.

The poll of 412 people in the 3rd Senate District had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 points and was conducted from Oct. 26 to Oct. 29. The district encompasses portions of Brookhaven and Islip towns.

A Siena survey last month showed Foley and Zeldin in a dead heat, 44 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. Thirteen percent were undecided or didn't plan to vote.

More recently, Siena also did polls in three Senate districts upstate.

In three counties north of Syracuse, incumbent Democrat Darrel Aubertine of Cape Vincent is locked in a tight race with Republican Patricia Ritchie.

Similarly, Democrat Timothy Kennedy has a slim lead over Republican Jack Quinn III in the Buffalo suburbs, and Republican Greg Ball has a slight edge over Democrat Michael Kaplowitz in Putnam County and portions of Westchester and Dutchess counties.

With three seats separating the political parties in the upper chamber, Republicans hope to regain the majority they lost in 2008 to Democrats. The GOP had held sway for 43 years and whichever party wins the majority Tuesday will have a key role in redrawing legislative district boundaries for the next decade.

"If the four races Siena has looked at are any indication, it appears that the Republicans may have a small edge," said pollster Steven Greenberg.

In the Suffolk contest, aside from Republicans, Zeldin does best among voters not affiliated with a political party, men and people 55 and older. Foley is strongest among Democrats.

Given a choice between Foley and voting for someone else, 57 percent said they preferred someone else. Thirty-five percent backed the senator.

Foley campaign spokeswoman Anne Fenton dismissed the Siena poll, saying its "questionable methodology has oversampled portions of the electorate resulting in unreliable data."

Siena officials said the survey sample accurately reflects the 3rd Senate District's political makeup.

Zeldin aide Michael Johnson called the poll "encouraging," but said the campaign would remain focused on voter turnout.

Separately Saturday, Marist College released a survey of likely voters showing Democrat Andrew Cuomo leading Republican Carl Paladino, 56 percent to 37 percent, for governor. The two U.S. senators, Charles Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand, both Democrats, are far ahead of their GOP rivals.