Weather patterns sparing LI a harsh winter

Long Islanders: count your blessings.

The wet stuff expected Thursday will be rain. The wet stuff that pelted the Island a year ago Thursday was snow -- more than a foot in some locations -- and created whiteout conditions on the East End.

Overall, the Island has seen a mild winter so far this season.

There was a mere trace of snow early last month and none since then at the monitoring station in Islip. This time last year, weather spotter Charlie Burnham, 73, of Southold was sitting at his computer watching "a pretty good storm" coming up from North Carolina.

He anticipates, as do most professional forecasters, a light winter on the Island, but, "It's not over until March. You can still have a snowstorm in March -- although it would be pretty wet snow."

The contrast between last year's blizzard and this year's springlike conditions has many asking why is Long Island, and the region, being spared the snow this year?

The simple answer is warmer weather, said Laura Nash, meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Upton.

SEE PHOTOSSnowstorms that buried LI over the past 100-plus years

"Obviously, it was a lot colder last year," she said. "Overall, it's warmer weather . . . The jet stream is further north. . . . It's a little bit of Arctic oscillation."

As for the underlying cause? "It's hard to tell what's causing the pattern," Nash said.

Rich Hoffman, a meteorologist for the past nine years at News 12 Long Island, owned by Cablevision, which also owns Newsday, said the easiest way to explain it is that cold air comes south from Canada and warm air comes north from the southern states and "there are more south winds this year."

"That ties into circulation and low pressure and high pressure," he said.

Hoffman said his strongest memory of last January was the record snowfall for the month: 34.2 inches, topping the previous January high of 21.5 inches in 2005.

Southold weather spotter Don Fisher, 58, said the mild weather is the main topic when he and his fellow ham radio operators get together for breakfast at the North Road Deli in Southold.

The snow had piled up "last year at this time. Now we're walking around in vests and T-shirts," Fisher said.

For those who do enjoy the snow, there may be a bit on the way. The forecast calls for rain Thursday, followed by possible snow showers Friday and flurries on Saturday.
 

Snow days

January snowfalls on LI

2012: none as of Jan. 11

2011: 34.4 inches

2010: 6.4 inches

2009: 8.9 inches

2008: 0.8 inches

2007: 1 inch

Source: National Weather Service

Annual snowfall on LI

2010-11: 61.5 inches

2009-10: 67.7 inches

2008-09: 43 inches

2007-08: 11.5 inches

2006-07: 9.5 inches

A whopper year

1995-96: 90.75 inches

A mild year

1997-98: 4.5 inches

Source: Brookhaven National Laboratory