Analysis: Obama's next test could be Afghanistan

WASHINGTON - Fresh from a bruising victory on health care and a nuclear arms deal with Russia, President Barack Obama turned to a third campaign promise - victory and an honorable exit from Afghanistan. That could prove tougher than any challenge overcome so far, and the president appears to know it.

Seldom does a U.S. leader devote more than 24 hours flying to and from a war zone to spend only six hours on the ground. But the stakes are enormous.

Since taking office, Obama has nearly tripled the number of U.S. forces committed to Afghanistan, which hasn't known peace in at least three decades. After eight years of war, the U.S. military says it now is blunting advances by Taliban militants, but Afghan President Hamid Karzai still has little power outside Kabul, the capital, and his government is riddled with corruption.

Al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, key lieutenants and foot soldiers still hide across the mountainous border in Pakistan even though U.S. drone strikes have killed dozens in the terrorist group responsible for 9/11.

Obama campaigned on a pledge to focus on the Afghan war, which he said - unlike the fight in Iraq - was critical to U.S. security and being overlooked and poorly resourced by the Bush administration.

Despite the partisan atmosphere, the president enjoys broad GOP support for his intensification of the Afghan war.

There appears to be growing support among the public for Obama's Afghan policy. The latest Associated Press-GfK poll at the beginning of March found that 57 percent of those surveyed approved of his handling of the war, compared with 49 percent two months earlier.

The Obama-Karzai meeting lasted about 30 minutes, and Obama told the Afghan leader he saw some progress since they last talked in video conference two weeks ago. They discussed good governance, merit-based appointments of Afghan officials and corruption. The administration has routinely chastised Karzai for failing to make progress on those issues.

Obama's surprise visit underscores the political stakes for him. The president pledged to begin withdrawing U.S. forces in July 2011, when his campaign for a second term would be well under way. That will be a difficult pledge to keep if Karzai doesn't intensify a corruption purge.

Not clear, either, is how long Obama can sustain his winning streak with domestic and foreign policy. Republicans are predicting a major victory in November midterm elections, forecasting that American voters are prepared for a wholesale rejection of congressional Democrats who voted for the health care law.