ANALYSIS: Voters' dump-incumbents message is murky

WASHINGTON - Voters sent a clear message Tuesday: They don't like the way Washington works. But they sent a mixed message on what would make it work better, which adds up to a virtual guarantee that it might be a long time before Washington actually does work better.

Pennsylvania Democrat Joe Sestak and Kentucky Republican Rand Paul sounded a lot alike when they addressed their supporters after upending establishment-backed candidates in their Senate primaries. Both attributed their victories to grass-roots dissatisfaction with Washington, and on that they were correct.

Paul was fueled by the tea party movement, which has become the energizing force inside the Republican Party. Sestak owes his success against five-term incumbent and party switcher Arlen Specter to grass-roots energy on the left.

Their victories speak to the broadest trend shaping the political climate, which is voter anger. Voters have lost faith in their politicians, whom they see as a privileged class that has lost touch with the concerns of Main Street. But in today's ideologically polarized environment, left and right are joined only by their disgust with the status quo. What the supporters of Paul and supporters of Sestak want couldn't be farther apart.

A post-primary analysis by Republican pollster Glen Bolger's underscored the problem. He notes the focus on the apparent anti-incumbent mood that has now toppled two sitting senators (Specter and Utah's Robert Bennett) and a sitting House member (West Virginia's Alan Mollohan), and threatens another sitting senator (Arkansas's Blanche Lincoln).

But he makes a point often overlooked in the shorthand interpretations the media often uses. "With the exception of Mollohan, the nomination defeats [or major troubles for Lincoln] are politicians who were punished for their votes and efforts that strayed from the party line," Bolger wrote.

Mollohan lost a week ago in part because of ethical baggage he had carried for some time. But Bennett, who was defeated at a party convention on May 8, was targeted because he had supported the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Specter was targeted because rank-and-file Democrats did not trust him. Lincoln drew the ire of unions and progressives for giving up on the public option in the health-care debate.