Could tax overhaul shift senate control?

The overhaul of the state's tax code may deliver Long Island to the Republicans in next year's elections -- or set them up for a fall that could shift control of the State Senate back to Democrats.

It depends on whom you ask.

To recap: Convening in Albany for a one-day special session, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo and legislators agreed on a broad tax package. It raised tax rates on the wealthy, lowered them for middle-income earners, created special funds for infrastructure, urban-youth jobs and upstate flood relief, and partially repealed the Metropolitan Transportation Authority payroll tax.

The two aspects ripest for Long Island political campaigns are the MTA tax and the tax hike on the wealthy.

Republicans campaigned against the MTA tax in 2010 when they won all nine Island Senate seats -- unseating two Democrats. Though they won't go so far as to say the partial repeal locks up the 2012 Senate elections for them, the GOP believes this puts them on solid footing.

Not so fast, said Sen. Mike Gianaris (D-Astoria), head of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee. He notes that the MTA change eliminated $300 million of what was a $1 billion tax -- not the total amount, as the GOP promised voters. "They're hanging their hats on one partial victory," he said.

"Maybe they're feeling guilty because they are the ones who enacted the MTA tax to begin with," countered Sen. Charles Fuschillo Jr. (R-Merrick), referring to 2009 when Democrats controlled the Senate.

Gianaris' point two: Senate Republicans flip-flopped on taxing the wealthy. They refused to do so in the spring, but changed their minds in December -- possibly eroding their Conservative Party support. "When Senate Republicans make a statement one day," Gianaris said, "there is no confidence they are going to keep their word the day after."

Further, Gianaris said the Democrats should get credit for forcing the issue of the "millionaires' tax" as well as same-sex marriage earlier this year.

Baloney, said Republicans. "The tax package was a windfall benefit for Long Island," said Sen. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley).

Arthur "Jerry" Kremer, a former Long Island assemblyman turned lobbyist, said it's too early to tell who will reap election-year benefits. "This is the first time I can remember in 25 years in Albany that everybody got a piece of the pie," Kremer said. "Anyone who claims victory is overstating their case."

Dan Janison is on vacation