Davidoff: Mets closer K-Rod not getting job done

As action dragged forward at Citi Field yesterday, the unseasonably cold weather adding a "frozen tundra" football game element, this one felt like it would produce what has become a "classic" 2010 Mets game.

A walk-off homer. Ike Davis leaning over the dugout railing. Maybe both.

Instead, the contest featured what has become an unwelcome, repeated plot line: Francisco Rodriguez's failure to do his job.

The Mets lost to the Nationals, 6-4, when K-Rod allowed a ninth-inning, two-run homer to Washington's Roger Bernadina. So Jerry Manuel's club concluded a 3-3 homestand with an overall 18-16 record, and plenty of obvious concerns (Oliver Perez, Jeff Francoeur, Jose Reyes) to go against some obvious bright spots (yesterday's starter Mike Pelfrey, Davis, Rod Barajas).

But K-Rod has become the Mets' dirty little secret. He just hasn't been very good since he joined the team last year. And while he doesn't belong in the same "financial albatross" conversation as Perez, he has not given the Mets much of a return on their commitment of three years and $37 million.

"Anytime I go into that situation, you have an opportunity to hold that and let the boys come back - that one's on me," Rodriguez said. "I've just got to work that out and make sure tomorrow, I'm ready to go."

K-Rod has a 2.04 ERA in 16 appearances this season, and that and about $350 million will help you clean up the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. It's just not a very useful statistic for a reliever.

Instead, you should delve into the exciting world of sophisticated baseball analysis and check out xFIP, which factors in walks, strikeouts and fly ball rate. Heading into Wednesday, Rodriguez carried an xFIP of 4.41. That reflects the high number of fly balls he surrenders - 56.4 percent of his batted balls, before Wednesday - and the expectation that 11 percent of those will be home runs.

Or go to Baseball Prospectus' website and look at WXRL (win expectation above replacement, lineup-adjusted), which measures how relievers advance their teams toward a victory. Entering Wednesday, K-Rod ranked 26th in baseball with a .758 score. Washington's Matt Capps, who picked up the save after Bernadina's homer, led all of baseball with a 1.819.

Rodriguez puts a lot of runners on base; he has walked nine and allowed 11 hits in 172/3 innings. He has blown two saves in seven chances, and Wednesday was his first loss.

Bernadina crushed an 88-mph fastball that was right over the plate into the Nationals' bullpen in right-center for the game-winner. FanGraphs.com has K-Rod's fastball velocity as down this season - an average of 91.2 mph heading into Wednesday, compared to last year's 92.9.

Overall, Rodriguez said that he felt "fine" and "one hundred percent," and Jerry Manuel professed no worries over his closer. "He is obviously our most important guy down there, who we have to keep somewhat fresh and somewhat sharp," the Mets manager said. "He just got a pitch up."

It's true that we are talking about a small sample size this year, and that Rodriguez's 2009 fell off the tracks as the team lost relentlessly and presented far fewer save opportunities. Yet with all relievers, we rely on a relative pittance of data.

If he's still missing bats, with 20 strikeouts in those 172/3 innings, he's not minimizing the damage elsewhere.

It's all relative: Phillies closer Brad Lidge left the team Wednesday to see a doctor about his ailing right elbow. Yet the Phillies don't have too many other holes.

You can find plenty of weak spots on the Mets. Closer isn't supposed to be one of them. At the very least, though, you can't call K-Rod an asset right now.