Davidoff's Baseball Insider

With Memorial Day's arrival, we're approaching the one-third mark of the season, which means it's time to stop shrugging off results as "early." Teams soon will start acting on what they've seen. Trade discussions should pick up after next week's amateur draft.

For the third straight year, I'm taking this holiday weekend to examine the "turnaround teams": Clubs that posted a losing record in 2009 and currently have a winning record, or vice versa.

The idea is to poll officials from the "static" teams - either still winning or still losing like last season - and get their takes on the clubs that reversed direction. I asked the panelists, "Will each team continue its new path or revert to its previous ways?"

As of the completion of Friday's action, we had 10 turnaround teams. The "losers-turned-winners" list included Cincinnati, the Mets, Oakland, San Diego, Toronto and Washington. The "winners-turned- losers" group featured the Cubs, Florida, the Angels and Seattle.

Of the 20 static teams, officials from 13 participated, on the condition of anonymity. The vote counts for teams differ because I conducted the poll over five days' time, and the list of teams evolved throughout that period. For instance, the Mets went over .500 Wednesday night, so those interviewed before then did not vote on the Mets.

Here are the results, featuring confidence ratings (percentage of voters who believe the team either will keep winning or start winning) and a quick take on each club.

Losers turned winners

1. Reds (78-84 in 2009, 29-20 through Friday). Twelve panelists thought the Reds would finish over .500 and only one thought they would stumble beneath the break-even mark - a 92.3 percent confidence rating. However, most figure Cincinnati will place behind St. Louis in the National League Central.

2 Padres (75-87, 28-20). Six thought the Padres are too legit to quit (and trade Adrian Gonzalez) and just as many anticipated a Gaslamp Quarter gasp, for a 50 percent confidence rating. Those who like the Pads noted their run prevention; the non-believers questioned the run production.

3. Athletics (75-87, 26-23). The A's received four votes of optimism and five of pessimism for a 44 percent confidence rating. Supporters noted their breakout pitching staff and easy competition in the American League West; detractors thought it just wasn't the A's time yet.

4. Blue Jays (75-87, 28-22). Four people projected the Blue Jays to maintain their winning ways and eight didn't for a 33.3 percent confidence rating. The offense and young pitchers garnered some support, but more wondered whether the results were fluky and how Toronto will survive its murderous AL East schedule.

5. Mets (70-92, 25-24). Only two panelists addressed the Mets, and neither thought they could record a winning record, giving them a (small-sampled) zero percent confidence rating. A pitching shortage and bad clubhouse atmosphere were cited.

6. Nationals (59-103, 25-24). No one thought the Nationals will finish the season above .500; seven envisioned Washington putting up its fifth straight losing campaign, giving them a (larger-sampled) zero percent confidence rating. Concerns about both the starting rotation and bullpen dominated the conversation.

Winners turned losers

1. Angels (97-65, 23-27). Only two of 13 surveyed thought the Angels will finish with a losing record, an 84.6 percent confidence rating. Why? Mostly, respect for the three-time defending AL West champs. The two critics noted the Angels' suspect offense and bullpen.

2. Cubs (83-78, 23-26). Five thought Lou Piniella's group will post its fourth straight winning year; seven believed that these losing Cubs are for real, a 41.7 percent confidence rating. Age and pitching were cited as reasons not to anticipate a rebound. Others felt they have too much talent not to pick it up.

3. Mariners (85-77, 19-28). Twelve panelists thought the disappointing Mariners will remain that way. Not a one disagreed, giving the M's a resounding zero percent confidence rating. As one official noted, the Mariners are going to have to trade Cliff Lee, at which point they'll become even worse in the short term.

4. Marlins (87-75, 24-25). The Marlins just entered this group Friday night, so no one voted on them, giving them a confidence rating of infinity (you can't divide by zero). For what it's worth, I think they'll finish above .500.