Dawidziak: Local unions should wait 'til 2013

Things are tough all over. While this is certainly true for most Americans, on Long Island times have been particularly trying lately for unions and their members.

Granted, many unionized public employees have received their negotiated salary bumps over the past few years, and the climate for the labor movement is nowhere near as bad here as it is in other parts of the country. New York is still a very blue state and a bastion of union strength and influence. "Right to work" laws won't be passed here anytime in the near future. Such laws, which prohibit closed union shops or mandated union dues as a term of employment, exist in 23 states.

Nor is it likely that we'll see attempts to strip municipal unions of their collective bargaining rights. That battle, being waged in Wisconsin, has led the unions to attempt a recall vote of Gov. Scott Walker. But while the political waters might not be as threatening on Long Island as in many parts of the country, the building trades here have been hit hard. The lack of new home starts that accompanied the collapse of the housing market hurt many union workers, including electricians and carpenters. That might not have been all that bad if retail and commercial development hadn't come to a halt at the same time. Particularly galling to many union leaders is how difficult it is to get a development project off the ground -- because of a lack of funding from the banks, NIMBY opposition to projects, and the difficulty of getting through most municipalities' planning and zoning processes. It takes too long for projects to get that first shovel in the ground, and in the meantime, people wait for work.

Municipal unions, which represent government workers, are struggling, too. With both Nassau and Suffolk facing big deficits, hundreds of county workers have already lost their jobs, and both counties are pressuring their respective unions -- the Civil Service Employees Association in Nassau and the Association of Municipal Employees in Suffolk -- for further concessions to avoid more layoffs. Polling shows that most of the public views civil servants as overpaid and underworked. However unfair this might be, it gives the politicians muscle when negotiating with the municipal unions in hard times.

This has all led to a consensus among the union leadership that their voices must be heard and their influence felt at the ballot box. But it's a tough year to send a message. There are few races this fall where union support could make the difference. The presidential and U.S. Senate races are too big for unions to make an impact. Besides, both the Democrats and Republicans have already counted New York's 29 electoral votes for President Barack Obama.

That leaves the races for the U.S. House, State Senate and Assembly. The new district lines for the Statehouse are so seriously gerrymandered that there's hardly a competitive race on Long Island. Even in cases where the incumbents' districts have changed, strong challengers haven't emerged. Of the five congressional seats on Long Island, only one is expected to be truly competitive, and that's the rematch in the 1st District, pitting incumbent Rep. Tim Bishop (D-Southampton) against the man who almost took his seat in 2010, Republican Randy Altschuler.

Instead, unions should set their sights on 2013. With smaller seats like the county legislatures and town boards up for grabs -- and a lower voter turnout (more like 25 percent, as opposed to 70 percent in a presidential year) -- that's when unions can really make their clout felt through contributions and get-out-the-vote efforts. Like the long-departed Brooklyn Bums, the unions may just have to wait till next year.

Michael Dawidziak is a political consultant and pollster.