Dawidziak: Storms can change political futures

As Long Islanders recover from the mess left by Sandy, we also wind down what turned out to be an unexpectedly stormy election season. The race for the presidency nationwide and many local races have been close and combative.

With so much of the region still out of power, it appears impossible for every polling location to have electricity by Tuesday. Any possible solution to this dilemma is flawed. The search for generators is coming up empty in many places. And, of course, there is the need for gasoline to run any generators that are found. Polling places could be switched to locations with power -- such as firehouses -- but this could lead to confusion over where people should vote. That would certainly lead to charges of voter disenfranchisement.

As a last resort, voters could fill out their paper ballots to be put in a lockbox and counted later. But tensions will be running high in races expected to be close -- such as the rematch between Rep. Tim Bishop (D-Southampton) and Republican challenger Randy Altschuler in the 1st Congressional District. Both sides will worry about ballot security.

All of this leads to a strong sense of nostalgia for the old lever machines, which were mechanical and didn't require electricity.

One way or another, Tuesday will be Election Day. Voters who are busy just trying to get their lives back in order may be tempted to skip this one -- particularly because New York's entrenched status as a blue state means we haven't felt the effects of the presidential tempest here. But there are important state outcomes to be decided.

With control of the State Senate on the line, the race between Suffolk County Legis. Rick Montano (D-Brentwood) and Assemb. Phil Boyle (R-Bay Shore, and a former client) for the open seat left by retiring Sen. Owen Johnson (R-West Babylon) has generated sparks and has real consequences.

Storms like Sandy have shaped Long Island's history. Perhaps none was more influential than Hurricane Gloria in 1985. The battle over the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant had dominated local politics for years. Opposition to opening the plant centered in the Suffolk County Legislature. That year, there were enough key races that the balance in the legislature could have been tipped toward supporting the opening of the plant. I was part of an anti-Shoreham coalition working to help candidates who were opposed to the plant.

Going into the fall, many of the races were neck and neck. Then, on Sept. 27, Gloria hit Long Island with winds of 95 mph and gusts that reached 115 mph. The devastation was widespread. Some people were out of electricity for 10 days.

Gloria exposed the poor shape of the Long Island Lighting Company's infrastructure, and residents were outraged at the slow progress of the utility's response. Confidence in LILCO's ability to safely operate a nuclear power plant plummeted.

In the November elections, candidates in key races who opposed the opening of Shoreham won -- including an unknown young attorney I advised, who was running for office for the first time: Steve Levy.

Public opposition to the plant solidified in Gloria's wake. It was the beginning of the end for Shoreham. It's no understatement to say that the storm had a drastic impact on Long Island's political future.

It's impossible to predict exactly how Sandy will shape Long Island, whether through her effects on Tuesday's elections or beyond. Candidates can try to control the political winds, but there is no controlling how the storm winds blow.

Michael Dawidziak is a political consultant and pollster.