Declining A-Rod fits about third at 3rd
New York Yankees' Alex Rodriguez (13) connects for a hit during the second inning of a spring training baseball game against the Houston Astros. (March 2, 2011) Credit: AP
There's no doubt Alex Rodriguez has declined in the last few years. Injuries and age have played a part with Rodriguez missing at least 24 games in three consecutive seasons and a decline in average and OPS in each year, including a career-low .847 OPS last season.
Still, A-Rod had 30 home runs and 125 RBIs in 137 games in 2010. He stole only four bases and he turns 36 in July, so double-digit steals is unlikely. Rodriguez could see a rebound in average after hitting .270, considering his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was .274 and his career average is .318.
Third base is very shallow this season and because of that, Rodriguez is still a top option at the position. Evan Longoria and David Wright are the top two at the position, then it's a choice between Ryan Zimmerman and Rodriguez. The position is littered with question marks, so drafting a third basemen early is a good strategy.
Kevin Youkilis isn't eligible at third yet, but will be in the first month and is an elite option. I don't think anyone believes Jose Bautista will hit 54 home runs again. The question is whether he will hit 35 and if you want to find out, it will cost a pick in the first four rounds.
Adrian Beltre gets a boost in Texas, but keep in mind nagging injuries have crept up the last few seasons and he currently has a calf injury. He has one 30-homer year and two 100-RBI seasons in his career.
If you miss out on the elite at the position, consider Aramis Ramirez as a nice value. Ramirez had a thumb injury in the first half and endured some bad luck, too. Ramirez hit .207 in the first half with a .648 OPS. But Ramirez hit .276 with 15 home runs, 51 RBIs and an .847 OPS after the All-Star break. In what many consider to be a down year, he had 25 home runs and 83 RBIs in just 124 games. Ramirez batted .241, however, he had a .245 BABIP and his career BABIP average is .287. The average was also low because of a 57 percent fly ball rate.
Like most young hitters, Pedro Alvarez will strike out a lot, but the power is immense and he'll hit cleanup. Pablo Sandoval was clearly overweight last season and more suited for fantasy sumo wrestling, but he has lost weight. He actually tagged up from second base on a fly ball to center in a spring game this past week. Expect Sandoval to bounce back and he won't be pricey in drafts.
If you're looking for a real cheap player at third who could break out, consider Edwin Encarnacion. Many people have given up on him. He hasn't played more than 96 games in either of the last two seasons because of injuries. In 332 at-bats last season, he hit 21 home runs with 51 RBIs. He hit 13 homers in 293 at-bats in 2009 and 26 in 506 at-bats two years ago, so the power is legit. If Encarnacion gets 500 at-bats, he will hit 30 home runs.
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