Fantasy: Good idea to grab elite outfielder early
The elite options in the outfield aren't what they were in recent seasons.
Even though there are plenty of players to choose from in the later rounds and the position isn't as thin as some others, don't shy away from taking one in the first few rounds.
Grady Sizemore (Indians): Sizemore is coming off two surgeries and that has some staying away. Sizemore was bothered by a sore elbow, played through it and still hit 18 home runs. He was very durable before last year. He should bounce back and could have more RBIs hitting second. He's a steal in the third round.
Nelson Cruz (Rangers): It took a long time for the 30-year-old to make it, but he had 33 home runs and 20 stolen bases in his first full season in just 462 at-bats. Cruz won't hit for a high average because he strikes out too much, but the power/speed combo is something you want.
Andre Ethier (Dodgers): Ethier increased his fly-ball ratio almost 10 percent and his home runs jumped from 20 to 31. He hit just .194 against lefthanders last season and if that improves, he could have a bigger season.
Michael Bourn (Astros): Bourn finally found a way to get on base and hit lefthanders, leading to 61 stolen bases and a .285 average. A .366 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was above his career mark of .332, so his average could regress and he doesn't offer homers or RBIs. He is overvalued and similar players (Julio Borbon, Juan Pierre, Rajai Davis and Nyjer Morgan) go several rounds later.
Juan Pierre (White Sox): Pierre gets a major boost in value with an everyday job. Even in part-time play, Pierre hasn't shown a loss of skills. He hit .308 with no home runs, 31 RBIs, 57 runs and 30 stolen bases in 380 at-bats. In 375 at-bats in 2008, he stole 40 bases. Pierre is 33 and has always shown the ability to stay healthy. He'll provide average, runs and lots of steals.
Alex Rios (White Sox): Rios is coming off a disappointing season, but he still managed to hit 17 home runs and steal 24 bases. Playing a full year in a hitters' ballpark in Chicago should help and getting an outfielder capable of 20-20 in the middle rounds is good value.
Ryan Ludwick (Cardinals): The 37 home runs and .295 average in 2008 was clearly a career year, but he quietly had 22 home runs and 97 RBIs in 486 at-bats last season.
Jay Bruce (Reds): His walk rate improved from 7.4 percent to 9.9, his strikeout rate dropped from 26.6 percent to 21.7, the line drive rate fell from 21.1 percent to 13, while his fly ball rate rose from 34.2 percent to 48.5. Hitting more fly balls probably led to a lower BABIP, but .222 is still very low and likely thanks to bad luck leading to a .223 average. Don't let that drive you away. Bruce, just 23, will hit for power and he was successful stealing bases in the minors.
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