Fantasy: Weeks a risky early-round pick

The elite middle infielders are flying off the board in early fantasy baseball drafts. Second base is deeper than people realize, while shortstop is thin and top heavy.

Robinson Cano, Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Brandon Phillips, and Dan Uggla will get drafted early. Rickie Weeks is going as early as the third round. He finally had that breakout season thanks to good health and 651 at-bats. In his five other seasons, Weeks has never topped 475 at-bats.

With Ron Roenicke managing, Weeks should be given the green light and increase on the 11 steals from last season. The home runs will be there, but a low average and health risk make Weeks a risky investment that early.

Durability is an issue for Ian Kinsler, who was limited to 103 games and is perennially injured. It was just two years ago he went 30-30 and though he might miss some games, he's a better bet than Weeks, especially if he falls to the fifth round like he has been.

Looking for a bounce back candidate? Try Aaron Hill. He went from 36 home runs to 26, but did have 154 fewer at-bats. As for the .205 average, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was an unlucky .196. A career BABIP of .288 indicates his average will rise and he's a career .270 hitter. Gordon Beckham was a bust last season, but he's just 24 and hit .310 with six home runs, 27 RBIs, and an .877 OPS in 171 at-bats after the All-Star break. He's a tremendous value right now.

Some second base sleepers include Danny Espinosa, Sean Rodriguez, and Eric Young Jr.

The shortstop position is anchored by Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, and Derek Jeter.

Jimmy Rollins might slip in some drafts, but he won't fall too far because of the scarcity at the position. Rollins has had some bad luck on BABIP with marks of .251 in 2009 and .246 last season, leading to batting averages of .250 and .243. He had a career-high walk rate last season and should still provide some pop, stolen bases, and an average closer to .280.

The 30-plus stolen bases from Elvis Andrus are nice, but he's overvalued. He's a two-category player with a .265 average being drafted too early.

Alexei Ramirez isn't the most exciting option. Still, he's good for 15-20 home runs and double-digit stolen bases and that's an asset at shortstop.

If you don't grab the top players at the position, there are some intriguing options in the later rounds. A potential 20-home run player is J.J. Hardy. He hit 26 in 2007 and 24 the next season. He was plagued by a wrist injury last season and played home games at Target Field. Hardy moves to a good hitter's park in Baltimore and if the wrist is healed, the power will return.

Some players to target for stolen bases are Alcides Escobar, Erick Aybar, Jason Bartlett, Alexei Casilla, and Cliff Pennington. Reid Brignac, Jed Lowrie, Scott Sizemore, and Ty Wigginton are a few sleepers.