GOP given a shot at retaking both House, Senate

WASHINGTON - Just weeks ago, it seemed inconceivable the Republicans could win control of Congress this fall.

Not anymore.

Almost by the day, Republicans are sensing fresh opportunities to pick up ground. Yesterday, former Indiana Sen. Dan Coats announced he would try to reclaim his old seat from Democrat Evan Bayh, who barely a year ago had been a finalist to be Barack Obama's running mate. And Republicans are still celebrating Scott Brown's January upset to take Edward Kennedy's old seat in Massachusetts.

A Republican takeover on Capitol Hill is still a long shot. But strategists in both parties see at least narrow paths by which the GOP could win the House and, if the troubled environment for Democrats deteriorates further, possibly even the Senate.

"The likelihood is that Democrats hold the House and Senate," said former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-Neb.), calling party members' doom and gloom overstated.

Still, he added: "Democrats have got their hands full trying to navigate through unprecedented economic turmoil and two wars. And there's no question that there's anger out there."

Said former Sen. Bob Graham (D-Fla.): "It would be surprising if Democrats lost power. But anything in politics is possible. And if the economy's still in the tank 60 days out of the election, it's going to be difficult for Democrats."

With nine months to go, 2010 is shaping up in one sense to be a traditional midterm election for a new president: The out-of-power party is poised to gain seats in both houses. The question now is whether it will be a historic election with Republicans seizing power in Congress.

The Republicans would have to gain 40 seats in the 435-member House and 10 in the 100-member Senate - a tall order no matter how upset voters are. But still . . .

In the Senate, two Democratic seats are all but gone.

North Dakota's Byron Dorgan is retiring, and the Democrats don't have anyone to challenge the Republican, Gov. John Hoeven.

Democrats also failed to recruit their top candidate in Delaware. Vice President Joe Biden's son, Beau, eschewed a run for his father's old Senate seat against Republican Mike Castle. (Democrat Ted Kaufman, who was appointed as Joe Biden's Senate replacement, has said he won't run for election.)

For a GOP takeover, incumbent Democrats also would have to lose in Colorado, where appointed Sen. Michael Bennet faces a primary; Nevada, where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is unpopular but has a hefty bank account; Arkansas, where Sen. Blanche Lincoln represents a GOP-leaning state; Pennsylvania, where party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter is very vulnerable, and Illinois, where a dogfight is certain for President Obama's old seat.

Republicans would have to hold on to all the Senate seats they have now, hardly a sure thing. And the GOP also would have to beat incumbents in New York, where Republican Bruce Blakeman has emerged to challenge appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, and Connecticut, where Democrat Richard Blumenthal is comfortably leading all GOP contenders in polls.