Gun-control prospects dim in split Congress

WASHINGTON -- Despite a strong push for tighter gun restrictions by the White House and others, common ground continues to elude lawmakers, even after the December massacre at a Connecticut elementary school that left 20 children dead and a nation horrified.

With a ban on assault weapons all but certain to lack the necessary votes, gun-control advocates are hoping that Congress will at least consider stronger background checks and a crackdown on gun trafficking. But despite polls that show overwhelming support for such measures, those too will be a struggle.

Democrats and Republicans have sharp differences, and geography and social culture divides Democrats. Even debating the issue is uncomfortable for members of the president's party who face re-election in rural and conservative states where gun ownership is high.

"It's the worst of all possible worlds," said Sarah Binder, a political-science professor at George Washington University and an expert on Congress. "You're compounding two sources of potential gridlock."

The Democratic-majority Senate is expected to consider gun legislation when it returns April 8 from a two-week spring recess, and it will be a challenge in a chamber where it takes 60 votes to get most anything done.

"Any measure, apple pie or motherhood, would have trouble passing the Senate," said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.). His state is where 20 children and six adults were slain at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown. "The opposition is relentless and ruthless."

The Republican-controlled House of Representatives, meanwhile, has shown little enthusiasm for strong action, and in fact, many would prefer to loosen gun restrictions. On Thursday, at the same time Vice President Joe Biden, Mayor Michael Bloomberg and families of the Newtown, Conn., shooting victims were making an emotional plea for new laws, the House was quietly approving legislation with four gun-rights provisions.

There's probably little anyone can do to change the equation.

A March 7 poll by Quinnipiac University in Connecticut showed that 88 percent of respondents nationwide supported universal background checks, including 85 percent of gun owners.

But gun-rights backers also signaled that background checks, though popular with the public, will not enjoy universal support.

"I just got back from Wyoming, and people are very concerned that universal background checks lead to a national gun registry," said Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.). "People are opposed to it."

Gun-control advocacy groups are well aware of the schism and will be active in key states during Congress' spring recess.

Supporters of universal background checks believe they can succeed if they frame the issue as one about keeping guns out of the hands of criminals, and not taking away anyone else's.

But they face a well-organized, powerful lobby that includes gun manufacturers and the National Rifle Association. The group and its allies frame the issue as restricting the ability of law-abiding citizens to protect themselves and their families, a strategy that has been very successful in the two decades since the original assault weapons ban passed Congress.