COVID-19 will be around for years, experts predict
Experts predict COVID-19 will be like the flu as more get vaccinated
Lynbrook resident Blair Jones gets his third COVID-19 vaccine shot at Kennedy Memorial Park in Hempstead on Oct. 14. Credit: Newsday/J. Conrad Williams Jr.
Vaccination rates — and whether a more contagious or vaccine-resistant virus variant emerges — largely will determine the trajectory of the pandemic, as well as the future of pandemic-related restrictions, experts say. Variants could cause some years to be worse than others and may lead to annual vaccinations.
"The pandemic itself will end, although it may take a lot longer than people think," said Dr. David Battinelli, senior vice president at New Hyde Park-based Northwell Health. "In all likelihood, the virus itself will never go away."
The number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths rose sharply in New York through most of the summer, as they did nationwide, but rates remained significantly below those in states with low vaccination rates. In the past few weeks, the numbers have roughly plateaued statewide and on Long Island, with positivity rates remaining between 2% and 3%, statewide hospitalizations hovering just above 2,000 a day and deaths usually between about 20 and 40 a day.
Stephanie Silvera, an epidemiologist and professor of public health at Montclair State University in New Jersey, said Long Island and the rest of the New York City metropolitan area likely will reach a point in which cases remain consistently low.
"There will be a certain background level of COVID that will be expected, but it will move from pandemic to endemic," Silvera said.
Read more from experts in this story by Newsday’s David Olson.
Plus, coming this Thursday: Newsday hosts local doctors to answer questions about how the FDA has approved mixing and matching of vaccines for COVID-19 booster shots. Submit questions and register here for the noon event.
The number of new positives reported today: 155 in Nassau, 224 in Suffolk, 699 in New York City and 3,054 statewide.
This chart shows positivity rates reported on Long Island since Oct. 1.
This chart shows the percentage of coronavirus tests that were positive on average each day over a seven-day period.
Search that chart and more on our data page, where you can find the latest local trends in vaccinations, testing, hospitalizations, deaths and more.
See more coronavirus headlines below.
Erin Serpico is an assistant web producer who joined Newsday in November 2018. Originally from New Jersey, she now covers community events and produces local content for newsday.com while also helping run the homepage.
