Long Island logs more than 900 new COVID-19 cases for second day, state figures show

Long Island surpassed 900 new daily COVID-19 cases for the second day in a row in data released Thursday, part of a trend that has seen the number of cases double in three weeks — fueled by the highly contagious delta variant.

Those numbers, projected out, could mean the Island may return to levels seen in the worst days of the pandemic in March and April 2020, though experts were divided Thursday on whether that would happen.

"There’s no question the rates are much higher and they’re much higher than a year ago, and a year ago we didn’t even have vaccines," said Dr. Bruce Farber, chief of infectious diseases at North Shore University Hospital in Manhasset and Long Island Jewish Medical Center in New Hyde Park. "It’s rather alarming."

While he is concerned, he said, he doesn’t think Long Island will go back to the dark days at the height of the pandemic, partly because many people are vaccinated.

But Dr. Sean Clouston, associate professor of public health at Stony Brook University, said he isn’t so sure.

"The increase is very fast. It mirrors a lot of what we are seeing around the U.S.," he said. On Long Island, "This year we are looking at very fast growth, even though it’s summer. So that bodes very poorly for the fall.

"I think we are headed for case rates that are as high or probably higher than March 2020," Clouston added.

Nassau County registered 407 new cases in test results from Wednesday, while Suffolk County had 515, for a total of 922. As recently as June, the daily total was well below 100.

New York City logged 2,380 new cases in test results from Wednesday, state figures show.

The number of people hospitalized in the state because of the virus rose by 49, to 1,937.

The positivity level in testing for COVID-19 on Long Island inched up to 3.96%, continuing an upward trend this summer. The level was 0.35% on June 29.

Across the state, 17 people died Wednesday of causes linked to the virus, including three in Suffolk.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo urged people to get vaccinated to help stop the spread.

"New Yorkers who have not yet received their vaccination are leaving themselves, their communities, and their loved ones at heightened risk of contracting COVID, especially with the ongoing spread of the delta variant," he said in a statement.

Long Island’s seven-day case average of 769 a day is nearly nine times higher than it was a year ago, when it reached 88 daily cases on Aug. 17, 2020, according to state data provided Wednesday.

That pace doubled in the last three weeks. If it continues to do so, Long Island will exceed 1,000 new cases per day in less than one week and the pandemic's record of 3,465 cases per day, which was set on Jan. 11, in less than seven weeks.

There were 368 COVID-19 patients hospitalized Tuesday on Long Island, more than quadrupling the 88 patients in hospitals on Aug. 17, 2020.

The number of patients has doubled in two weeks. If that pace continues, the region will exceed last winter's high of 1,701 patients in less than five weeks and its pandemic high of 4,108 hospitalizations in less than two months.

Farber, who works for Northwell Health, said he is worried about the increases, but does not think they will surpass the pandemic’s highest figures.

"I can’t really predict the future, but I doubt very much that they’re going to double" going forward, he said. "The curve seems to be leveling off. Hospitalized patients are climbing, but not at an astronomical pace."

The rates won’t reach last year’s levels in part because many people are vaccinated, and others already have gotten the virus and have antibodies, Farber said.

"I can’t imagine we would go back to the way that was, just based on the math and who’s been infected and who’s been vaccinated," he said. "The only way we will go back to the worst days is if there is a totally new variant that becomes resistant to all of our recent mitigation efforts.

"This peak will end," Farber added. "The question is when and what is going to happen after the peak."

Clouston, of Stony Brook, said he expects the numbers to keep rising, and he is not sure where they will stop.

What is especially concerning is the numbers are rising quickly before most New York schools and colleges have resumed, he said.

"Unless things change, next week is going to be higher still," Clouston said.

Meanwhile, Mayor Bill de Blasio said more than 80,000 New Yorkers had gotten the city’s $100 incentive to encourage vaccination.

"This is working. This is important to people," he said Thursday.

The age group that has the fastest-growing vaccination rate is 12- to 17-year-olds, he said. That group’s rate is 56%, or 300,000 children, who have one dose, ahead of the national average of 48%.

De Blasio also said the city was offering a referral bonus for Parent Teacher Associations.

"Whenever a PTA gets a student or a family member to come in and get vaccinated, we will give them $100 for everyone they bring in. So, think of the virtuous circle here. People get vaccinated, the individuals get $100, the PTA gets $100 for each person they bring in and they recruit to get vaccinated," he said.

In Nassau, County Executive Laura Curran said 85.3% of adult residents 18 and older in the county had received at least one vaccine dose, the highest percentage of all 62 counties in New York State.

Curran also announced a program aimed at getting more people, including Hispanics, vaccinated.

The county will team with Westbury-based Hicks Nurseries to provide on-site Moderna shots on Aug. 27, with the follow-up shot on Sept. 24, Curran said in a statement.

The shots are free, no questions will be asked about insurance or immigration status, and Spanish-speaking staff will be on hand. Walk-ins are permitted.

With Matthew Chayes

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