Flu cases drop for 3rd consecutive week

Flu cases in New York and Long Island have dropped for three weeks in a row, but infectious disease experts said the season isn't over yet.

Lab-confirmed flu cases statewide were down 40% and hospitalizations were down 38% for the week ending Jan. 10, the most recent state data available. On Long Island, cases dropped from a peak of 15,627 cases on Dec. 20 to 4,307 cases.

This decline comes after the state reported record flu cases and hospitalizations in late December.

"The curves are way down," said Dr. Bruce Farber, chief of public health and epidemiology at Northwell Health. "I doubt it will peak again, but it lingers around for several months at lower levels."

Nationally, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that while influenza activity has "decreased or remained stable" for the last two weeks, it is still elevated. The agency estimated 18 million illnesses, 230,000 hospitalizations and 9,300 deaths from flu this season to date.

This season has been especially tough thanks to a late-emerging variant of the influenza strain H3N2, known as subclade K, which experts said is highly contagious. Additionally, fewer people have gotten flu shots.

"The drop is almost as fast as the rise in cases was and most cases are still being caused by H3N2 — and presumably the subclade K variant of it," said Andy Pekosz, professor and vice chair of the department of Molecular Microbiology & Immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore.

"We may be passing the peak of subclade K activity in most parts of the U.S." he wrote in an email. "In past years, we have seen a second wave of influenza in the late winter/early spring so public health agencies will continue to monitor influenza activity." Second waves of flu are often caused by a different strain.

Dr. Eve Meltzer Krief, a pediatrician at Allied Physicians Group’s Huntington Village Pediatrics, said she has seen a drop-off in flu cases over the last week at her practice, but is still recommending the vaccine for any of her patients who have not yet received it.

"The flu is still circulating and we usually see an uptick in a different flu strain a bit later in the season," she wrote in a text message.

Last year’s flu season peaked in New York on Feb. 1 with 54,834 lab-confirmed cases. This year's peak, so far, was Dec. 20, with 72,424 cases.

Last week, New York State Health Commissioner James McDonald urged New Yorkers to keep up their guard despite the declining flu numbers.

"I think one of the most important things to remember about influenza is, you can get influenza more than once during the same season, because the dominant strains change," McDonald said during an online briefing with acting New York City Health Commissioner Dr. Michelle Morse.

He said it’s still worth it for people who are not immunized to get a flu shot. While it might not prevent people from getting the flu, it will help prevent them from becoming seriously ill and needing hospitalization. Only about 25% of eligible New Yorkers received their flu shots this season including about 22% in Suffolk County and 26% in Nassau County.

" Keep in mind, influenza B tends to rise later on in the season and, in New York State, flu tends to last through the end of April," he said. "There’s an awful lot of flu in front of us."

By Lisa L. Colangelo

lisa.colangelo@newsday.com@lisalcolangelo

Lisa joined Newsday as a staff writer in 2019. She previously worked at amNewYork, the New York Daily News and the Asbury Park Press covering politics, government and general assignment.