Experts predict 'heavy' flu season as vaccine hesitancy continues

This influenza season is gearing up to be "heavy" again, based on forecasts from other countries and the growing number of people refusing to get a flu shot, Long Island infectious disease experts said Tuesday.

Federal health officials labeled 2024-2025 a "heavy severity season." New York State had its most lab-confirmed flu cases in at least six years and Long Island its most cases in at least four years.

When trying to predict the coming months, doctors often look to the Southern Hemisphere and Australia, where flu season has just ended, said Dr. Dwayne Breining, senior vice president of lab services at New Hyde Park-based Northwell Health.

"Australia has historically been pretty predictive," he said Tuesday at a news conference at North Shore University Hospital in Manhasset. "It looks like it's going to be another heavy flu year, so that has us very concerned ... but there is still plenty of time to go out and get your vaccine. It makes a big difference."

Everyone 6 months of age or older should get an annual flu shot, except for those with certain medical conditions such as specific allergies, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Dr. Bruce Farber, chief public health and epidemiology officer at Northwell Health, said more people died last year of influenza than COVID-19, including about 300 young children, 90% of whom were not vaccinated. In New York, 26 children had influenza-associated deaths.

"Influenza is not a cold, it's a serious infection," Farber said.

He said vaccination rates last year in adults were less than 50% and "very poor" across the board.

Between October 2019 and April 2020, about 62% of children in the United States were vaccinated against the flu, according to the CDC. That number dropped to 49% between October 2024 and April 2025.

Farber said for healthy people, the flu vaccine prevents infections about 60% of the time.

"The flu vaccine is not terribly effective in preventing influenza, but it's very effective in preventing death due to influenza, hospitalization due to influenza and severe illness," he said.

The flu kept Denise Sussman, 56, of Sea Cliff, in bed for almost a whole month last year.

For the first time in years, Sussman didn't get a flu shot due to a busy family schedule, including a trip with her 16-year-old daughter to see Taylor Swift perform in Toronto last November.

"I was so happy that I got to spend that time with my daughter and have that experience with her," Sussman said at the news conference. But while helping her husband pack boxes for an office move, she started feeling dizzy and lethargic. The next day, she went to an urgent care center.

"I was diagnosed with the flu," she said. "I remember leaving there. I could barely walk ... I wasn't eating. I was sleeping for the entire time." Her symptoms included fever, runny nose, aches and pains.

"We had to cancel Thanksgiving, cancel the family flying in from Florida," said Sussman, who got vaccinated last week.

Dr. Susan Hirsch, who specializes in primary health and women’s care, said it’s more difficult than ever to convince patients about the importance of the flu shot.

"People are looking at Instagram and Facebook and conspiracy theories," she said of the flu shot. "We really spend time trying to explain how it's safe and they're not gonna get the flu from it. And people just are very, very reluctant these days."

Farber added: "We are fighting a tremendous amount of misinformation on vaccines, including the flu vaccine. So it's been a real uphill struggle to get people motivated to get vaccinated."

By Lisa L. Colangelo

lisa.colangelo@newsday.com@lisalcolangelo

Lisa joined Newsday as a staff writer in 2019. She previously worked at amNewYork, the New York Daily News and the Asbury Park Press covering politics, government and general assignment.