Later-round starting pitchers with value

Go back and look at last season's rankings of the top 10 pitchers before the season. Now look and see how many finished the season in the top 10.

I'm betting Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke, Chris Carpenter, Justin Verlander and Javier Vazquez weren't on those lists to begin the season.

If you decide to wait or not spend big bucks on starting pitchers, here are some to target.

Ricky Nolasco (Marlins): A lot of people will shy away because of his 5.06 ERA last season and recall that he was sent to the minors in May. If you analyze Nolasco closely, you see he didn't pitch as bad as the ERA indicates. He had 9.49 K/9, a 2.14 BB/9 and still had a 1.25 WHIP. The ERA was high thanks to an unlucky Batting Average on Balls in Play (.336) and a very low strand rate (61 percent). Nolasco has great stuff and will be a top-20 pitcher.

Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies): The days of avoiding pitchers from Colorado are done. Jimenez has all the tools to succeed. He improved his control and increased his strikeout rate. He gets a lot of ground balls and is very difficult to hit. If he can improve on his 3.51 BB/9, he can contend for the Cy Young.

Cole Hamels (Phillies): He had almost the exact K/9, BB/9, HR/9, fly ball, line drive and ground ball rates as in 2008, but his ERA went up 1.23 and WHIP went up .21. The difference was Hamels had a .325 BABIP compared to .270 in 2008. Draft Hamels at a discount.

Jon Lester (Red Sox): He got off to an atrocious start last season before being one of the most dominant pitchers the rest of the way as he improved his K/9 to 9.96. He'll be one of the elite.

Wandy Rodriguez (Astros): He has shown improvement and been excellent for two straight years. Rodriguez mixes his pitches well and has a good curveball.

Matt Garza (Rays): He is one example why you don't look at wins when drafting pitchers. Garza went 8-12, but had a 3.95 ERA with a career-high 8.38 K/9 with little run support. He is capable of 200 strikeouts.

Scott Baker (Twins): He has excellent control (48 walks in 200 innings) and a good K/9 (7.29). Baker struggled through a shoulder injury in the first half before finishing strong.

Brett Anderson (Athletics): He had an impressive rookie season, especially after the All-Star break with almost one strikeout per inning, a 3.48 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 88 innings. Anderson had a 51 percent ground ball rate, a 7.7 K/9 and 2.31 BB/9. He's the real deal.

Gavin Floyd (White Sox): His wins decreased by six and his ERA rose by .24, yet he had a better season. His K/9 rose to 7.6, BB/9 decreased to 2.75 and his fly ball rate declined by six percent. A good value pick.

Kevin Slowey (Twins): He has pitched well coming off wrist surgery. Slowey has excellent command and will be a bargain.