LI's political battlefield might change shape

Tomorrow marks one full month since the tallies in Sen. Craig Johnson's re-election bid proved so close that the rival sides are still engaged in counting, canvassing, suing, figuring and posturing.

No winner is yet declared. Republican Mineola Mayor Jack Martins still leads by a few hundred votes.

The contest is notably intense. But for the interested parties, things have been nothing but intense, on and off, for nearly four years in the 7th Senate District.

The district ranks among New York's most disputed political territories, perhaps the Manassas of the state. It was, after all, the sudden scene of the first major clash in a war for control of Albany's upper house.

In February 2007, Johnson won a special election to succeed Republican Michael Balboni, breaking the GOP's grip on all nine Long Island Senate seats. It occurred in the backyard of leading Senate Republican Dean Skelos of Rockville Centre.

Johnson prevailed, again, in the 2008 general election. His win was indispensable to the Democrats' capture of a shaky 32-30 majority, their first majority in the house since the 1960s.

This time the reverse may well be true. That is, Johnson's first loss - Martins' first win - would figure to be a decisive step toward giving Republicans a new, razor-thin 32-30 edge.

The GOP's expectations moved closer to reality Tuesday when Sen. Antoine Thompson (D-Buffalo) conceded defeat, leaving only the results in the 7th S.D. and the 37th S.D. in Westchester yet to be finalized.

Johnson, a former Nassau legislator, tells people he'll run again next time regardless of this election's outcome.

Next time, however, this prime battlefield may have drastically different borders.

The party that wins a Senate majority wins clout in drawing district lines for the 2012 race.

Michael Tobman, a Johnson adviser, spoke Tuesday in what he called "the expectation and hope that Craig keeps his seat." But he and other strategists said that if Republicans recoup the Senate, they may look to remove from the district Democratic strongholds in New Cassel, Westbury, and Elmont. Port Washington could be carved out, moved elewhere, with Great Neck divided. The district could extend into northeast Queens, as does the 5th Congressional District. A new piece of Franklin Square could be added. The power to reapportion is sweeping.

"It should be a full-fledged war in 2012," said one Republican. "These guys, the Democrats, are not going to lay down, particularly with a presidential year coming and Obama at the top of the ticket again. Obviously reapportionment will be a factor in terms of how things may change."

Statewide, census numbers published by the spring should give an idea of how the political map will change based on population trends - with upstate thinning out, the New York City region rising in numbers, and the impact of development in the Hudson Valley helping shape the landscape.

In the 7th S.D., every season will remain campaign season, for two more years at least, given its proven potential to affect the state's political power grid.