Long Island weather forecast calls for 'near blizzard,' 10 to 16 inches of snow
Bay Shore's Tommy Greene looks at a few snow shovels at a Home Depot in Bay Shore. (Dec. 19, 2009) Credit: Ed Betz
Long Island is forecast to get hit by a major winter storm beginning late tonight that will likely make Wednesday's commute a nightmare.
MORE: LI forecast to get hit by a snowstorm
As of 4:03 p.m., the National Weather Service is calling for accumulations of 10 to 16 inches and "near blizzard conditions."
The latest forecast is for the snow to start late this evening, with sleet mixed in during the morning rush hour.
High winds are expected through the day, with the snow forecast to taper off Wednesday night.
Long Island will be under a winter storm warning from 10 p.m. tonight through 6 a.m. Thursday.
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What's the difference between the upcoming winter storm and the one that buried the mid-Atlantic and just missed Long Island?
It's all about the tracking, meteorologist Brian Ciemnecki of the Weather Service in Upton said Monday.
"The last storm tracked south, toward Virginia and Maryland, and then pushed out east," Ciemnecki said Monday. "This next system looks as if it is going to be moving out of the Ohio Valley and develop into a coastal low, moving south and east into Long Island."
The service said there's the potential for higher amounts, up to 18 inches, closer to the coast.
"But it is still early, and it all depends on the tracking," he said. "We could get less, but it looks like this will be a significant event," Ciemnecki said.
The Long Island Rail Road is prepared to suspend some service should the snowfall prediction hold up, a spokesman said.
For the LIRR, the critical snowfall is between 10 inches and 13 inches, spokesman Joe Calderone said.
"Most of the electric trains on our tracks draw power from the third rail, which is between 10 and 13 inches high on the line," he said. "When snow gets above 10 inches, it can be an issue because it can severely impact our operations."
Long Islanders were spared the major snowstorm that buried Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and parts of New Jersey.
As for the coming storm, there is a chance it could track east of Montauk Point, sparing much of the area again. "It's early," Ciemnecki said, "and the forecast could change."
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