Analysis: Obama takes a gamble on Libya

WASHINGTON -- By forcing a humanitarian no-fly zone on Libya this weekend, President Barack Obama took a gamble whose outcome remains unknown, lawmakers and administration officials said Sunday.

Operation Odyssey Dawn, as the international military operation is called, could quickly topple Libyan dictator Col. Moammar Gadhafi or turn into a painful stalemate that goes on for months, if not years.

"It's hard to know exactly how this turns out," said Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on CBS' "Face the Nation" Sunday.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) predicted that which way it would go, at least, will emerge soon: "I think in the next five or six days we'll know."

Complicating matters is that the United Nations-sanctioned no-fly zone doesn't seek to overthrow Gadhafi, but is intended to protect Libya's innocent citizens from him.

International pressure and isolation are the tools being used to achieve Obama's stated goal: regime change in Libya.

Despite unclear outcomes and an ambiguous way forward, Obama decided to go ahead with the action in the face of domestic and international pressure.

At home, McCain and others for the past two weeks have accused Obama of dithering as they urged him to impose a no-fly zone to help Libyan rebels.

Abroad, not only did France and the United Kingdom push for action on Libya, but the Arab League and the Gulf states for the first time asked the West to intervene in an Arab country.

That plea from the Arab world was "the game changer," said Senate Foreign Relations Committee chief John Kerry (D-Mass.).

Obama, leery of getting into another war in the region, ordered no U.S. boots to be on the ground, Mullen said, and no U.S. forces to be in the lead.

Still, Mullen said Gen. Carter Ham, who heads U.S. forces in Africa, is in charge of the attacks and Adm. Sam Locklear is the tactical commander coordinating all the attacks.

The U.S. role has been mostly firing missiles from submarines and other ships, and flying 24/7 over Benghazi, where the opposition is in control, to drive back Gadhafi's army.

But Mullen said the U.S. military soon will move to a supporting role. "In a few days the U.S. hopes it can turn over control to one of the coalition members," he said.

Mullen repeatedly called the action this weekend "phase one of a multiphased operation."

The next steps depend on what Gadhafi does, he said.