Economist predicts Dems to lose in close House races

WASHINGTON - Democrats may lose control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the November elections after contests that will be closer than polls suggest, according to Yale University economist Ray Fair.

Fair, who has developed a formula using economic data that would have correctly predicted all but three presidential elections since 1916, projects Democrats will get 49.3 percent of the national vote in this year's congressional races.

"They're going to get less than half of the two-party vote in the House," the professor at the university in New Haven, Conn., said. "It looks like the election will be relatively close."

Fair's assessment contrasts with polls that show Democrats trailing Republicans by as many as 13 percentage points when voters are asked which party they plan to support. In a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted Aug. 30 to Sept. 2, 53 percent of registered voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate, compared with 40 percent who backed the Democrat.

Still, national polls suggest voters' minds aren't made up.

The latest Gallup poll found hypothetical Republican and Democratic candidates each getting support from 46 percent of the 1,650 registered voters polled.

Republicans, who need a net gain of 39 seats to take control of the 435-member House, are ahead of Democrats by a little less than 2 percentage points, according to Fair's model.

"That could translate into a loss of the House," he said.