Jackson appears headed for confirmation to Supreme Court

WASHINGTON — Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson appears to have a bipartisan majority in the Senate to confirm her as the first Black woman on the U.S. Supreme Court this week, but she still faces strong Republican opposition that will ripple throughout the process.

That process begins Monday, when the Senate Judiciary Committee will discuss and vote on Brown’s nomination, and then Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) will guide it through the full Senate’s motions, debate and the final vote — likely on Thursday or Friday.

"We are on track to get her through this week," Schumer told Newsday in a phone interview Saturday. "It looks like we will be able to approve her Thursday or Friday." 

Carl Tobias, a law professor who specializes in federal judicial selection at the University of Richmond School of Law, said that barring something out of the blue, the Senate will confirm Jackson with a bipartisan vote before it leaves for its two-week recess.

“The only question is: How many Republican votes does she get?” Tobias told Newsday.

A Senate approval of Jackson to replace retiring liberal Justice Stephen Breyer — who will step down at the end of the Supreme Court’s term in June or July — will not change the court’s 6-3 conservative majority.

But, Tobias said, “I assume that Republicans are going to make them go through all the hoops.”

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) set the tone for the Republican response to the nomination of Jackson, 51, a D.C. Circuit Court judge, former federal district judge, former corporate lawyer and public defender, and Harvard and Harvard Law graduate.

He said last week that he opposes Jackson's confirmation because she failed to denounce Democrats' "court-packing" plan, she wasn't sufficiently forthcoming about her judicial philosophy, and for holding personal policy views on criminal sentencing that slanted her jurisprudence.

Jackson’s four days of Senate hearings, which activists had predicted would have few fireworks, took a combative turn last month when Republicans angling for the White House in 2024 grilled her repeatedly on a child-porn sentencing, Guantanamo detainee defense, critical race theory and court-packing.

Still, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the Judiciary Committee chairman, defended Jackson's record against those complaints and said he believes he has a bipartisan majority vote that will approve Jackson as an associate justice to take the place of Breyer.

“I think our Democrats are in good shape,” said Durbin, adding that he is talking with several Republicans. “I'm hoping that they will join to make this an even larger group, bipartisan support for this great judge.”

So far, among Republicans, only Maine Sen. Susan Collins said she would vote yes on Jackson’s nomination, after reviewing her record, watching her testimony and meeting with her twice and determining that she has “the experience, qualifications and integrity” to serve on the court.

Collins was one of three Republicans who voted for Jackson’s elevation to the D.C. Circuit Court last June. Another, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), hasn’t said what she’ll do.

But the third, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), said on Thursday he’ll vote no — breaking from his past votes for all Supreme Court nominees since he joined the Senate because, as he had said, elections have consequences and presidents deserved to have their nominees confirmed.  

“I oppose and will vote against the nomination of Judge Jackson to the Supreme Court,” Graham said in a speech on the Senate floor last week.

“My decision is based upon her record of judicial activism, flawed sentencing methodology regarding child pornography cases, and a belief that Judge Jackson will not be deterred by the plain meaning of the law when it comes to liberal causes,” he said.

Another Republican whom Democrats hope to win over is Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, who voted against Jackson’s nomination to the D.C. Circuit Court but has told reporters he still has not made up his mind and is reviewing her record and testimony.

Three Democrats also haven't announced how they'll vote.

Public opinion polls have found a majority of the public supports Jackson’s nomination, though a partisan split showed Republicans largely disapproved of it but Democrats strongly backed her appointment.

Before the hearing, the Gallup Poll found 58% of those surveyed supported her, tying Chief Justice John G. Roberts for the highest level for a Supreme Court justice nominee.

After the hearings, a Quinnipiac Poll found she retained the support of 51% of the public, while a Marquette Law School Poll reported that 66% supported her confirmation.

The Judiciary Committee is scheduled to begin its discussion on Jackson at 10 a.m. Monday. Each of the 22 committee members — evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans — will get a chance to air their views. Then they will vote.

Tobias said many experts and observers believe that vote will come along party lines — an 11-11 tie. If that happens, Schumer will have to use a parliamentary procedure called a discharge petition, requiring a Senate majority approval, to move the nomination to the Senate floor.

Then Schumer said he will file what’s known as cloture motions to end debate on Jackson’s nomination, and on Thursday a debate commences of up to 30 hours, evenly divided between the parties. At the end of that debate, the senators vote.

The White House has not said if Vice President Kamala Harris will preside over the vote, in case her tiebreaker is needed, or just to commemorate the historic nature of Jackson’s nomination.

Heritage Action, the Judicial Crisis Network and Committee for Justice — all conservative advocacy groups — are urging senators to vote against Jackson's confirmation. 

“There's an effort to try to tear down this brilliant, brilliant, incredibly, incredibly capable woman who's going to serve in the court. And so we're going to go through that,” said Marge Baker, executive vice president of People for the American Way, a liberal group backing Jackson.

“But we are again on the precipice of this incredibly historic confirmation of a woman who is going to make a huge, huge, huge difference on the court,” Baker said.