Likely outcomes of ruling on health care law

WASHINGTON -- The Supreme Court is expected to announce its verdict Thursday on President Barack Obama's health care law. Here is a look at some potential outcomes:

The Supreme Court upholds the law and finds Congress was within its authority to require most people to have health insurance or pay a penalty

The clear winners if the law is upheld and allowed to take full effect would be uninsured people in the United States, estimated at more than 50 million. Starting in 2014, most could get coverage through a mix of private insurance and Medicaid, a safety-net program. Republican-led states that have resisted creating health insurance markets under the law would have to scramble to comply.

The court strikes down the entire law

Taking down the law would kill a costly new federal entitlement before it has a chance to take root and develop a clamoring constituency, but that still would leave the problems of high costs, waste and millions uninsured. Some Republicans in Congress already are talking about passing anew the more popular pieces of the health law. But the major GOP alternatives to Obama's law would not cover nearly as many uninsured, and it's unclear how much of a dent they would make in costs.

The court strikes down the individual insurance requirement, but leaves the rest of the law in place

Individuals would have no obligation to carry insurance, but insurers would remain bound by the law to accept applicants regardless of medical condition and limit what they charge their oldest and sickest customers. Studies suggest premiums in the individual health insurance market would jump by 10 percent to 30 percent. Without the mandate, millions of uninsured low-income people still would get coverage through the law's Medicaid expansion. The problem would be the 10 million to 15 million middle-class people expected to gain private insurance under the law.

The court strikes down the mandate and also invalidates the parts of the law that require insurance companies to cover people regardless of medical problems and that limit what they can charge older people

Many fewer people would get covered, but the health insurance industry would avoid a dire financial hit. Insurers could continue screening out people with a history of medical problems -- diabetes patients or cancer survivors, for example. That would prevent a sudden jump in premiums. But it would leave consumers with no assurance that they can get health insurance when they need it, which is a major problem that the law was intended to fix.

The court throws out only the expansion of the Medicaid program

That would limit the law's impact severely because roughly half of the more than 30 million people expected to gain insurance under the law would get it through the expansion of Medicaid. But a potentially sizable number of those low-income people still might be eligible for government-subsidized private insurance under other provisions. Private coverage is more expensive to subsidize than Medicaid.

The court decides that the constitutional challenge is premature

Probably the most unlikely outcome based on what justices said during oral arguments. The federal appeals court held that the challenge to the insurance requirement has to wait until people start paying the penalty for not purchasing insurance.