Obama's address on Iraq war faces virtual land mines

WASHINGTON - Tonight, President Barack Obama will look the country in the eye and say he kept his campaign promise to wind down the unpopular 7-year-old war in Iraq.

But as straightforward as that message might seem, Obama's first major foreign policy address from the Oval Office must accommodate ambiguity and some virtual land mines.

"In many ways this may be the toughest speech President Obama has to deliver," said Meena Bose, a presidential scholar at Hofstra University. "It's not an action speech. It's more of a progress report. It's going to be very cautious because events are still developing on the ground."

At 8 p.m., Obama will deliver that nuanced report on what he says is a change in the U.S. military mission in Iraq, from combat to assistance. In the past several months, the military has drawn down nearly 100,000 combat troops from Iraq, leaving just under 50,000 U.S. troops behind. His audience will include an increasingly skeptical American public eager for good news and those in that region invested in the fate of Iraq.

Here are five issues experts say the president must address.

Avoid sounding triumphant

“This is a guy who needs wins,” said Franklin Gilliam Jr., dean of UCLA’s School of Public Affairs of Obama. “He needs to remind people one of the reasons he was elected: he campaigned on bringing the troops home.”

Yet Obama must not turn that accomplishment into the “Mission Accomplished” gaffe by President George W. Bush on an aircraft carrier in 2003.

“Things in Iraq aren’t particularly stable, and the whole thing could fall apart at any time,” Gilliam said.

Explain the new mission

As Vice President Joe Biden turns over the keys of power to Iraqis in Baghdad, Bose said Obama must describe Iraq and “what the situation is now, politically, militarily, economically.”

That includes the failure of Iraqi political factions to form a government since the spring elections and the insurgents’ stepped-up the violence.

To the American people, he must tell them what the 50,000 troops left behind will do.

And to Iraq’s insurgents and bordering countries aiming to take advantage of the shift, Obama must give a warning.

“He has to affirm why this is necessary and at the same time he has to present an image of strength,” Bose said.

Pivot to Afghanistan

Afghanistan now replaces Iraq as the main focus of U.S. military might, and that is a war Obama has put his stamp on with major troop increases beginning in December.

Obama, said Gilliam, must explain what the reduced role of the United States in Iraq means to his strategy in Afghanistan — and to the region as a whole.

Honor the troops

Obama opposed the Iraq war, but he must not disrespect the U.S. warriors in Iraq.

Obama came out against the Iraq war in 2002 and built his successful Democratic campaign by opposing the surge.
Still, said Gilliam, “He must be clearly supportive of the troops themselves.”

Connect with the people

Polls show Obama is in sync with the public on Iraq — 54 percent think the war was a mistake and 64 percent said its $750-billion tab wasn’t worth it.

TonightTuesday night he has a chance to connect with Americans who find him aloof, though Bose said an Oval Office speech “is supposed to be presidential,” not to “rally the forces.”

Yet, inevitably, there’s a political dimension to the speech.

Obama must decide how to reach out to Republicans who back him on Iraq and Afghanistan more than Democrats. Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford) credited “Bush policies” for the Iraq success so far, and credited Obama for following them.

Rep. Gary Ackerman (D-Bayside) said Obama needs to explain why the surge in Afghanistan is necessary, “and especially convince the [liberal Democratic] base who are more skeptical than the general public of foreign excursions.”