What's next in the Senate impeachment trial

WASHINGTON — The Senate impeachment trial of President Donald Trump arrives at a turning point Friday as senators debate and vote on whether to even consider motions to subpoena witnesses and documents before taking a final vote.

The stakes are high. The outcome will determine whether the Senate ends the trial as soon as Friday or Saturday with an expected vote to acquit the president, or if the trial continues for weeks or longer as witnesses and documents are subpoenaed and deposed.

Yet the outcome is uncertain. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said he doesn’t have the 51 votes in his 53-vote majority to end the trial. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said he hopes he’ll win his uphill battle to lure four Republicans to vote for witnesses.

Questions about Chief Justice John G. Roberts’ role as presiding officer also cloud the picture.

Here is what to watch for Friday.

The process

When the Senate convenes at 1 p.m. Friday, senators will hold a four-hour debate with time split between the two sides on whether to even consider if there should be a motion to subpoena for witnesses or documents.

Then comes the crucial vote.

If 51 senators vote yes, each side can propose witnesses and documents to be subpoenaed. The Senate votes on each one. If approved, witnesses will be deposed. The Senate then votes on which witnesses will testify. After testimony, senators hold deliberations behind closed doors. Then they will vote to convict or acquit Trump.

If the Senate votes no, senators deliberate and then take the final vote on Trump.

Presidential rumblings

If the Senate allows witnesses, Trump lawyer Jay Sekulow on Wednesday warned of a lengthy, drawn out legal fight and a flood of witness requests by the president’s counsel.

“I think we’re going down a road, if the Senate goes this road, of a lengthy proceeding with a lot more witnesses,” he said.

He also pledged a battle over any subpoena for former national security adviser John Bolton, whose forthcoming book said Trump told him he withheld aid to Ukraine for investigations into the Bidens.

The Republican wild cards

Republicans are increasingly confident they will have the 51 votes to block witnesses and end the trial as soon as Friday or Saturday — and they have the votes to acquit Trump.

Still, Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) say they want to hear what Bolton has to say. And Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and retiring Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) have hinted they might support witnesses.

“I think the bulk of conference realizes they made a mountain out of a molehill. We shouldn’t even be here,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). “Let’s end this as quickly as possible and then move on.”

The Democrats’ determination

Schumer said he hopes to get 51 votes for allowing witnesses. If he succeeds, he said Thursday, he will be open to negotiating with McConnell over witnesses.

But if he loses, he suggested he’ll draw out the process to prolong the trial.

“The minority has rights. We will exercise those rights,” Schumer said. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-N.J.) said, “We're looking at all of our parliamentary options to try to force as many votes as we can to put Republicans on the record.” 

Will Roberts rule?

It’s possible the Senate could tie 50-50 on the question of witnesses.

In normal Senate procedure, a vice president sitting as the presiding officer breaks the tie. But in the trial, the presiding officer is Chief Justice Roberts.

Roberts has a precedent if he chooses to step in: Chief Justice Salmon Chase cast two tiebreaking votes in the 1868 impeachment trial of President Andrew Johnson.

Democrats also propose that Roberts act as a trial court judge and rule on which witnesses and documents are relevant and which are not. Sekulow opposed this idea.

In both cases, the Senate can overrule Roberts’ rulings with a simple majority vote.

Roberts has not addressed either idea.