There's bipartisan agreement: GOP will gain in House

WASHINGTON - Two weeks from Election Day, Democrats are increasingly pessimistic about holding the House but cautiously optimistic that they can keep their majority in the Senate.

That view is shared by many Republicans. They are bullish about the House. However, many now worry the Senate may elude them because of the weak candidates they have nominated.

In gubernatorial races, Democrats are also bracing for significant losses. The only silver lining for the party is that Democrats remain competitive in big states such as California, Florida and Texas. Heavy losses are especially likely across the industrial heartland.

In blue states, Democratic fortunes have improved, if slightly. Overall, however, the number of competitive House races continues to increase.

THE HOUSE

The two best handicappers, Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg, continue to add districts to their lists of competitive seats. Rothenberg last week raised the number of potential battlegrounds to an even 100, with 91 now held by the Democrats. Cook, who saw a potential tidal wave building earlier than many other political forecasters, pegs the number at 97, with 90 held by Democrats.

In a poll of 96 competitive House districts (86 held by Democrats) released by Democrat Stan Greenberg and Republican Glen Bolger last week, Republicans are ahead, although narrowly, in 53 of the most competitive districts held by Democrats. But Democrats have also gained some ground in those districts since a similar poll in June.

Bolger said the results are mostly good news for Republicans, but pointed out that independents may not support Republicans by the overwhelming margins seen, for example, in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races last year.

At the same time, he said, GOP enthusiasm outstrips that of the Democrats and still could be the biggest factor in shaping an electorate that tilts more heavily toward the Republicans than two years ago.

On Long Island, the four Democratic and one Republican incumbent are favored to retain their seats.

THE SENATE

Although significant Republican gains are considered likely in the Senate, control of that chamber probably will come down to contests in Nevada, Illinois, Colorado, West Virginia, California, Washington and Wisconsin.

Of those, California and Washington, two strongly blue states, may be the most difficult for Republicans to capture.

In New York, in polls conducted this month, Democratic Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand and Chuck Schumer both have comfortable leads.

Nevada - where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid faces Republican Sharron Angle, the tea party candidate who raised an astounding $14 million in the past quarter - is too close to call. Among Republican-held seats, Kentucky remains competitive because of questions about GOP nominee Rand Paul, another tea party candidate.

In the final two weeks, a torrent of money, much of it from outside groups whose donors are not disclosed, will rain down on states and congressional districts, disproportionately for Republican candidates. The money will underwrite a barrage of ads, almost all of them negative.

Many Democratic candidates are holding their own in fundraising. But the outside money has caused a huge disparity that is likely to grow. One Democrat called the disparity "unfathomable . . . an endless sea."