US war commander sees progress in Afghanistan

(AP) — A top U.S. military commander offered a hint of optimism on the war in Afghanistan on Thursday by declaring, in contrast to other officials, that the security situation in the Central Asian state was no longer "deteriorating" but merely "serious."

Gen. Stanley McChrystal's assessment, a modest upgrade to the nine-year war, runs counter to that of officials in Afghanistan and other nations who say they worry the Taliban has expanded its influence and that the situation has become explosive.

McChrystal says he agrees the Taliban has made strides in recent months and said he is "not prepared to say we've turned a corner." Even so, he told reporters, the Afghan government and U.S. forces are making enough progress to leave him more optimistic about the war than he was last summer, when he declared it backsliding.

"I feel differently now," said McChystal.

"The situation is serious, but I think we have made significant progress in setting the conditions in 2009 ... and that we'll make real progress in 2010," he added later.

McChrystal's comments stand in contrast to those of officials in Afghanistan and other countries who say the Taliban's influence is expanding and that the situation there has worsened.

Nikolai Bordyuzha, secretary general of the Collective Security Treaty Organization — a federation of Central Asian states created by Moscow — said on Thursday that Afghanistan was "explosive" and "catastrophically deteriorating." His comments were reported by Itar-Tass, the Russian news agency.

Even if slight, any improvement to the U.S.-led campaign in Afghanistan would bode well for President Barack Obama, who has staked his presidency on defeating the Taliban by widening the U.S. commitment. While anti-war Democrats say they are skeptical, Obama seems to have convinced many Democrats that more troops — 30,000 more are being deployed this year — are critical to ending the war.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates and other Pentagon officials have suggested they need to show clear progress against the insurgents within 12 to 18 months to firm up public confidence in the war effort.

"Right now, the Taliban believe they're winning," Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a Senate panel this week. "Eighteen months from now, if we've executed our strategy, we'll know they aren't, and they will know that they can't."

Ivo Daalder, the U.S. Ambassador to NATO, on Thursday described 2010 as a "year of maximum effort."

"It is a year we are going to do everything we can, so down the road, we have to do less," Daalder said.

McChrystal, Gates and Daalder were part of a senior-level U.S. delegation attending NATO meetings this week in Istanbul. Among the delegation's priorities is ensuring that NATO bridges a shortfall of 4,000 trainers and mentors needed to work with Afghan security forces, U.S. officials said.

Also expected to be part of the talks is the best way to implement a plan by Afghan President Hamid Karzai to win over more moderate rank-and-file Taliban fighters and draw them into the political process.

In a posting on the alliance's Web site, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said a new $140 million trust fund would offer low-level fighters an alternative to remaining with the Taliban.

"They fight for the Taliban for small amounts of money to simply make a living or for other grievances," he said. "What is on offer to them is the chance of a new life."

Critics say similar efforts have been attempted for years but have attracted only the lowest-level fighters, with no guarantees of loyalty. And despite the incentives, the insurgency has expanded steadily. NATO estimates the number of Taliban in Afghanistan has grown from fewer than 400 in 2004 to about 25,000 last year and nearly 30,000 now.

McChrystal declined to estimate the size of the Taliban force.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and the special U.S. envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, both have publicly supported Karzai's plan to reintegrate insurgents into the broader Afghan community provided they renounce al-Qaida and violent extremism.

At the same time, Clinton and Holbrooke have spoken out against what some term "reconciliation," which would involve peace talks with the Taliban leadership.

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Associated Press Writers Slobodan Lekic in Istanbul and Matthew Lee in Washington contributed to this report.