NFL Gridiron Guide, playoff edition: Cardinals, Steelers, Bengals, Cowboys advance

The three top teams against the spread this season are all playing on wild-card weekend: Arizona, Indianapolis and Dallas. What does that mean? Just because you are good enough to cover doesn't mean you are good enough to earn a first-round bye.

The Cardinals went an NFL-best 11-5 against the spread (ATS) this season, followed by the Colts (10-5-1) and Cowboys (tied with the Chiefs at 10-6).

This might be the toughest playoff round to predict which teams to follow and fade. I think we'll see strong favorites (and better value) the next few weeks.

Teams that have won in the wild-card round have captured the Lombardi Trophy nine times, including seven occasions since the 2000 season.

Still, I believe the No. 1 seeds in each conference advance to Glendale, Arizona, and the NFL has its first repeat champion in the Seahawks since the Patriots did it during the 2003 and 2004 seasons.

Enjoy the playoffs and watch the trends.

CARDINALS (11-5) at PANTHERS (7-8-1), Saturday, 4:35 p.m.

Panthers by 6 1/2; O/U: 38

TV: ESPN; Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

I never expected the Panthers to win the NFC South, but they rolled off four straight wins, including a 31-point stomping in Atlanta to clinch a playoff spot. The Cardinals had a shot at the NFC's No. 1 seed but lost their final two games. Their injury issues, especially at quarterback, have been well documented. Bruce Arians, my pick for NFL Coach of the Year, named Ryan Lindley as the starting quarterback. Arizona is 18-6 ATS vs. teams with losing record in the last 24 occurrences, as well as 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. I know Arizona isn't nearly as good with Lindley at QB, but at this this time of the season, I take a strong lean toward great coaches, and I believe Arians is in that group.

The pick: Cardinals, 17-16

RAVENS (10-6) at STEELERS (11-5), Saturday, 8:15 p.m.

Steelers by 3; O/U: 46 1/2

TV: Ch. 4; Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

This is the first time these two divisional rivals meet in the wild-card round. The Steelers are 3-0 all-time vs. the Ravens in the postseason. Ravens QB Joe Flacco (9-4 in the playoffs) makes his 14th postseason start to tie Tom Brady for the most playoff starts in his first seven NFL seasons. Baltimore has never lost a first-round playoff game (6-0) under coach John Harbaugh (also 9-4 in the postseason). There are concerns about Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell (knee). However, Ravens DT Haloti Ngata returns from a four-game suspension, so maybe the Steelers won't run as much. Their passing attack, led by QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Antonio Brown, has put on a show. The Steelers (9-3 ATS in last 12 playoff games) should exploit the Ravens' banged-up secondary, which has lost 11 players to injury.

The pick: Steelers, 27-19

BENGALS (10-5-1) at COLTS (11-5), Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Colts by 3 1/2; O/U: 49

TV: Ch. 2; Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

The last time the Bengals won a playoff game, East Islip product Boomer Esiason was Cincinnati's quarterback and Anthony Muñoz was blocking for shuffle-dancing Ickey Woods. The Bengals have not won a postseason game since Jan. 6, 1991. Fast-forward 24 years and Esiason hosts a morning radio show, Woods has taken the shuffle to the cold-cut aisle and the Bengals . . . are still waiting for that elusive playoff win. The franchise has lost five straight playoff games, all under coach Marvin Lewis. The Colts, who beat the Bengals, 27-0, in Week 7, have the NFL's No. 1 passing offense (305.9 ypg). The Bengals were ranked 20th vs. the pass (243 ypg). The Colts have been one of my favorite plays, due in large part to Andrew Luck. However, the Colts' porous offensive line and lackluster defense takes its toll here. Cincy (16-8-1 ATS last 25 games on turf) finally advances. Do the shuffle!

The pick: Bengals, 34-31

LIONS (11-5) at COWBOYS (12-4), Sunday, 4:40 p.m.

Cowboys by 6 1/2; O/U: 48

TV: Ch. 5; Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

Don't let the spread fool you, this might be the most intriguing game of wild-card weekend. One of the best matchups could very well be the Lions' No. 1-ranked rushing defense (69.3 yards per game) vs. the Cowboys' No. 2-ranked rushing offense (147.1 ypg). The Lions have DT Ndamukong Suh, who won his appeal after getting hit with a one-game suspension, but that powerful Dallas offensive line shouldn't have any problems. Conversely, the Lions have the lowest-ranked rushing offense of the playoff teams (28th at 88.9 ypg), which makes Detroit one-dimensional. The Lions were 2-6 ATS on the road this season, and are 9-20-1 ATS in last 30 road games overall. The Cowboys closed the regular season with four wins by an average margin of 21 1/2 points per game.

The pick: Cowboys, 30-17

John Boell's Super Bowl prediction: Seahawks 24, Patriots 17

STAFF PICKS (best bets in caps)

JOHN BOELL (137-114-5 regular-season record): CARDINALS Steelers Bengals Cowboys

BOB GLAUBER (125-126-5): Panthers Steelers COLTS Cowboys

TOM ROCK (120-131-5): Cardinals Steelers COLTS Cowboys

KIMBERLEY A. MARTIN (121-130-5): CARDINALS Steelers Colts Cowboys