NFL Gridiron Guide Week 9 picks: Bad spots for Jets, Giants

JETS (1-7) at CHIEFS (4-3), 1 p.m.

Chiefs by 9 1/2; O/U: 41 1/2

TV: Ch. 2; Radio: ESPN (98.7)

I can neither confirm nor deny that Jets GM John Idzik called me last Sunday night and asked if he should have a news conference on Monday. "Absolutely," I told him. "But one thing: Blame everyone BUT yourself." I guess he missed that last part! Idzik called his performance this season "unsatisfactory." He could have also been referring to my 13-17 record against the spread (ATS) the last two weeks. The Jets are 1-6-1 ATS, while the Chiefs have covered five of their last six. KC has never been this big a favorite under Andy Reid. The former Eagles coach goes against his former QB, Michael Vick. I can't see the turnover-prone Vick helping a team that has the NFL's worst turnover margin (-15). Four words: Get ready, Matt Simms.

The pick: Chiefs

CARDINALS (6-1) at COWBOYS (6-2)

Cowboys by 4; O/U: 48

TV: Ch. 5

Jerry Jones is the Cowboys' owner, president, general manager . . . and chief medical messenger liaison? OK, I made that last one up. It was Jones who told coach Jason Garrett on the sideline Monday night that Tony Romo was ready to return. Romo's back has me concerned, and I like Arizona's No. 3 rushing defense to keep DeMarco Murray under 100 yards for the first time this season.

The pick: Cardinals

REDSKINS (3-5) at VIKINGS (3-5)

Vikings by 1; O/U: 43 1/2

Former Bengals assistants Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer square off. The news of Robert Griffin III returning dropped the line from Vikings -3 to a pick 'em in some spots. The Vikes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine following a win.

The pick: Redskins

BUCS (1-6) at BROWNS (4-3)

Browns by 6 1/2; O/U: 43 1/2

Tampa Bay is 20-7-1 ATS last 28 road games vs. teams with winning home record. Worth a shot.

The pick: Bucs

EAGLES (5-2) at TEXANS (4-4)

Eagles by 2; O/U: 48 1/2

Radio: WNYM (970)

As good as the Eagles' offense can look, their red-zone offense has to improve. The Iggles are last in the NFL (34.8 percent) in that category, and it cost them in last week's loss. Incidentally, Houston is third-best in the league at red-zone defense (48 percent). Still, Texans are 3-8 ATS in last 11 home games. Birds bounce back big-time.

The pick: Eagles

CHARGERS (5-3) at DOLPHINS (4-3)

Dolphins by 2 1/2; O/U: 45

I know Philip Rivers gets most of the love for the Chargers' hot start. But don't forget about Antonio Gates, who last week became the fourth tight end in NFL history with at least 750 career catches. He's tied for the NFL lead in TDs scored with nine. Miami has covered three of its last four games, but I like San Diego to break two streaks: 1) It has dropped three straight covers after a 5-0 start ATS; 2) It has lost seven straight in Miami and has not won there since the 1981 playoffs. Speaking of great Chargers tight ends, that was the Kellen Winslow game. Google it, kids.

The pick: Chargers

JAGUARS (1-7) at BENGALS (4-2-1)

Bengals by 11; O/U: 43 1/2

In honor of the inaugural College Football Playoff rankings, I'm honored to bring you "Boell's Best'' -- the top four teams in the NFL, two from each conference. In the AFC I like Denver and New England. My NFC picks are Arizona and Dallas. One team you definitely won't see in my ranking this season? The Jaguars. The Bengals (12-0-1 overall in last 13 home games) get their first double-digit win since Week 3.

The pick: Bengals

BRONCOS (6-1) at PATRIOTS (6-2), 4:25 p.m.

Broncos by 3; O/U: 54 1/2

TV: Ch. 2

Cue the trumpets. Release the doves. In all of the NFL's regal splendor, I bring you Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. Oh yeah, I mean, it's Denver against New England. Yay! This is the 16th meeting between the two sure-to-be first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Brady & Co. are 8-3 overall in the regular season vs. Manning, and have split four playoff games. The Patriots -- on a 13-game home regular-season win streak -- have been hit hard by injuries yet have run off four straight wins thanks to an NFL-leading plus-11 turnover margin. However, Manning has thrown only three INTs. Denver has too many weapons on offense, plus the dynamic defensive duo of Von Miller (nine) and DeMarcus Ware have totaled 16 sacks.

The pick: Broncos

RAMS (2-5) at 49ERS (4-3), 4:05 p.m.

49ers by 10; O/U: 44

Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

The Rams lost six starters last week. The 49ers rested on a bye, and could return four injured starters. St. Louis has covered only four times in last 13 trips to S.F.

The pick: 49ers

RAIDERS (0-7) at SEAHAWKS (4-3), 4:25 p.m.

Seahawks by 15; O/U: 43

Seattle won't lose at home here, but Oakland is 3-1 ATS this season as 'dogs of 6 1/2 or more points.

The pick: Raiders

COLTS (5-3) at GIANTS (3-4), Monday, 8:30 p.m.

Colts by 3 1/2; O/U: 51

TV: ESPN, Ch. 11; Radio: WFAN (660, 101.9)

I would have bet anyone before the season that Big Blue would finish with a worse record than the Jets. Shame on me. Wait a second, did the Colts just give up another big completion to Big Ben? Just when I thought I had things figured out, Ben Roethlisberger torches the Colts, who shut out the Bengals the previous week. You know Eli Manning was licking his chops watching the Colts' 'D'. But it's the other side of the ball that should worry the G-Men. The Colts lead the NFL in total offense (452.2 yards per game) and passing offense (336.5). The Giants are 27th in total defense and 25th in passing defense. Even off a bye, I think this is too big a challenge for the Giants. The Colts are 13-3 ATS in last 16 games following an ATS loss.

The pick: Colts

STAFF PICKS (against the spread; best bets in caps)

JOHN BOELL 63-56-1, 3-5 best bets; Last week: 7-8: Chiefs Colts Cardinals Redskins Bucs EAGLES Chargers Bengals 49ers Raiders Broncos Ravens

BOB GLAUBER 59-60-1, 3-5; Last week: 9-6: CHIEFS Colts Cardinals Vikings Browns Eagles Chargers Bengals 49ers Seahawks Broncos Steelers

TOM ROCK 61-58-1, 3-5; Last week: 7-8: Jets Colts CARDINALS Vikings Browns Eagles Chargers Jaguars 49ers Seahawks Broncos Ravens

KIMBERLEY A. MARTIN 61-58-1, 3-5; Last week: 6-9: Jets Colts Cardinals Redskins Browns Texans CHARGERS Jaguars 49ers Raiders Patriots Steelers