NFL Week 18 picks: Packers punch ticket to playoffs; Jags-Titans a slugfest

It’s Week 18 and there are still more questions than answers. Which playoff-bound teams will rest starters? Which out-of-it teams may still find motivation? Like Week 1, this is a good week to sit it out or just focus on one or two games.

Underdogs went 8-7 against the spread (ATS) last week and are 135-114-6. My most confident picks ATS are Pittsburgh, Las Vegas and Green Bay. Stay away from many games, especially the ones in which it’s unclear how long starters will play.

SUNDAY NIGHT

DETROIT (8-8) AT GREEN BAY (8-8)

Green Bay by 4.5; O/U: 49.5 (NBC)

The Packers have won four in a row to earn this prime-time opportunity at a wild-card spot: Beat Detroit and they’re the NFC’s 7 seed with a likely trip to San Francisco on deck. On second thought, maybe Green Bay shouldn’t want to win this game. All jokes aside, the Packers have looked like a serious team the last month. They lost at Detroit, 15-9, in Week 9, a fluky game in which Aaron Rodgers threw two of his three picks at the goal line. Jared Goff doesn’t play well in cold weather, and while Dan Campbell will have his team up for this game, the Lions could be relegated to playing spoiler if the Seahawks win. Rodgers in a must-win spot against the Lions? We know the ending to this movie.

THE PICK: GREEN BAY

GIANTS (9-6-1) AT PHILADELPHIA (13-3)

Phila. by 14; O/U: 42.5 (CBS, 4:25 p.m.)

When the Eagles beat the Giants, 48-22, in Week 14, they probably didn’t think they’d need to win the Week 18 rematch to clinch the 1 seed and division. But here we are after Jalen Hurts missed the last two games and the Eagles went 0-2. The Giants are locked in to the 6 seed and likely won’t play their starters. Lay the points and wait for it to be 27-10 as the stadium blares John Mellencamp’s “Hurts So Good.”

THE PICK: PHILADELPHIA

JETS (7-9) AT MIAMI (8-8)

Miami by 2; O/U: 38.5 (Fox, 1 p.m.)

Can you believe I’ve picked the Jets every week but once? Week 5 vs. Miami. Well, Miami is playoff-bound with a win and loss by the Patriots, so I’m doing it again.

THE PICK:

MIAMI

KANSAS CITY (13-3)

AT LAS VEGAS (6-10)

Kansas City by 9.5; O/U: 51.5

(ABC, ESPN, 4:30 p.m.)

KC (6-10 ATS) last week again didn’t cover as a big favorite. It’s playing for the AFC’s 1 seed but too often hasn’t been able to put teams away. The safer play is taking all the points with a Las Vegas team that could be motivated to try and stop a rival’s playoff plans, plus make up for the 30-29 loss at KC in Week 5, a game the Raiders led 17-0.

THE PICK: LAS VEGAS

AFC SOUTH TITLE MATCHUP

TENNESSEE (7-9)

AT JACKSONVILLE (8-8)

Jacksonville by 6.5; O/U: 39.5

(ABC, ESPN, 8:15 p.m.)

When thinking about the Week 18 schedule, Jacksonville felt like a candidate for my “Lock of the Week.” But considering my best bets are on an 0-8 run, my gut instincts have been tough to stomach. Titans fans have felt queasy too during a six-game losing streak, and the deck is stacked against them without their starting quarterback facing a Jaguars team that has won four in a row, including a 36-22 win at Tennessee. Jacksonville should win, but this spread feels too high. Mike Vrabel’s teams have played well as underdogs over the years, and with Joshua Dobbs having extra time to prepare for his second start and Derrick Henry returning, I expect Tennessee to be in it the whole game. Plus, being favored in prime time is new to Jacksonville.

THE PICK: TENNESSEE

NEW ENGLAND (8-8) AT BUFFALO (12-3)

Buffalo by 7; O/U: 42.5

The Patriots are in the playoffs with a win. The Bills obviously have had their minds elsewhere this week after Damar Hamlin collapsed. They’ll win, but they won’t cover.

THE PICK: NEW ENGLAND

BALTIMORE (10-6)

AT CINCINNATI (11-4)

Cincinnati by 7; O/U: 40.5

The Ravens are averaging 11.8 points without Lamar Jackson. Cincy is 9-1 since a loss at Baltimore and can clinch the division.

THE PICK: CINCINNATI

LOCK OF THE WEEK

CLEVELAND (7-9)

AT PITTSBURGH (8-8)

Pittsburgh by 2.5; O/U: 40.5

The Steelers are playoff-bound with a win and losses by the Pats and Dolphins. Doesn’t sound that unlikely, right? Pittsburgh lost the first matchup without T.J. Watt, but it’s 7-2 with him. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season.

THE PICK: PITTSBURGH

TAMPA BAY (8-8) AT ATLANTA (6-10)

Atlanta by 4.5; O/U: 40.5

If Tom Brady throws a TD pass he will have 28 TDs to 3 INTs all-time against Atlanta. Yes, 28-3. Sorry for the reminder, Falcons fans, but you’ll go into the offseason by finally beating a Brady-led team (even if he’s barely on the field).

THE PICK: ATLANTA

CAROLINA (6-10) AT N. ORLEANS (7-9)

New Orleans by 3.5; O/U: 41.5

No playoff implications here, so take the extra half-point.

THE PICK: CAROLINA

MINNESOTA (12-4)

AT CHICAGO (3-13)

Minnesota by 7.5; O/U: 43

The Vikings will want to go into the playoffs off a win after last week’s blowout loss at Green Bay. Justin Fields won’t play for Chicago.

THE PICK: MINNESOTA

HOUSTON (2-13-1)

AT INDIANAPOLIS (4-11-1)

Indianapolis by 2.5; O/U: 38

These teams played to a 20-20 tie in Week 1. Colts interim coach Jeff Saturday won his debut but has lost the next six. A win in his swan song sounds about right.

THE PICK: INDIANAPOLIS

DALLAS (12-4)

AT WASHINGTON (7-8-1)

Dallas by 7; O/U: 40.5

The Commanders are starting rookie quarterback Sam Howell after last week’s loss knocked them out of the playoff conversation. While the Cowboys still have a shot at the NFC East title and 1 seed, this spread feels too high. Remember, if the Eagles are up big early against the Giants and Dallas knows it’s going to stay as the 5 seed and have to play at Tampa Bay next week, it could rest starters in the second half.

THE PICK: WASHINGTON

ARIZONA (4-12)

AT SAN FRANCISCO (12-4)

San Francisco by 14; O/U: 40.5

The 49ers won the first matchup, 38-10, in Mexico City. This is a huge number, but with Arizona’s uncertainty and inexperience at quarterback, take the NFL’s best defense as it wraps up the NFC’s 2 seed.

THE PICK: SAN FRANCISCO

L.A. RAMS (5-11)

AT SEATTLE (8-8)

Seattle by 6; O/U: 41.5

Seattle needed a late touchdown to escape with a 27-23 comeback win at Los Angeles in Week 13. Sean McVay doesn’t strike me as the kind of coach who is just going to lay down as a division rival inches closer to the playoffs (Seattle needs a win and Green Bay loss). Plus, this is a final audition for Baker Mayfield. This rematch is going down to the wire, too.

THE PICK: L.A. RAMS

L.A. CHARGERS (10-6)

AT DENVER (4-12)

Denver by 2.5; O/U: 39.5

The Chargers could go from the 6 to 5 seed and facing the AFC South winner is a more favorable matchup than one of the conference’s Big 3. Still, the question of resting starters is in play. The first meeting went to OT, with L.A. prevailing 19-16. Denver played inspired football last week in a close loss at Kansas City after firing its coach. No player and team has been a bigger disappointment than Russell Wilson and the Broncos, so a win in their finale at home could be seen as extra motivation.

THE PICK: DENVER