Race for Gillibrand's Senate seat may get combative

In this season of tax-revolt talk, it stands to reason that something, somewhere in New York, will have to give.

At the moment, Democrats hold all the big statewide elected posts and both legislative houses. At least some of the party's officeholders look destined to lose Nov. 2, given the circle of partisan life.

As a group, Republicans and those leaning toward the GOP have been showing excitement in key regions despite nasty rivalries among party players. The Democratic organization, by contrast, puts up a united front, and puts out the message that the mood works against incumbents regardless of party. But it is the Democratic candidates who are under critical pressure in the top races, facing anxiety about who will turn out and who will not.

Against this landscape, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, the Democratic appointee of an outgoing governor, dropped into Hauppauge Monday for a news conference at Stony Brook University's Long Island World Trade Center program, which helps 9/11 first-responders.

Hours earlier her campaign had attacked her Republican challenger, former U.S. Rep. Joseph DioGuardi, over a campaign-finance mess used against him 22 years ago by Nita Lowey, his successful Democratic challenger for his House seat. Team Gillibrand has accused DioGuardi of "masterminding" an "illegal scheme." No charges ever were filed, however, and DioGuardi issues a detailed defense.

Gillibrand leads in early polls. She was asked: Why roll out the negative artillery now?

"You know, my opponent and I have very different visions for New York," she said by way of reply.

" . . . His platform and his record is very backward looking and in fact it's out of step with average New Yorkers. And frankly New Yorkers have a right to know who he is, what he stands for, and what his record actually is."

Off-message translation: Offense equals defense.

"She hears Joe's footsteps," one DioGuardi ally said Tuesday, declining to be identified. "You don't go negative with $12 million in the bank unless you hear giant footsteps, unless you know you're in trouble."

Added Bruce Blakeman, the one-time Nassau legislative leader who lost to DioGuardi in a three-way GOP primary Sept. 14: "I think he's going to win. Her support is not deep; it's very thin. Republicans are very energized, and Democrats are very subdued."

But a Democratic consultant not involved in the race said: "I think she'll be fine, although she should be running away with it and is not. Andrew Cuomo's numbers and Chuck Schumer's numbers should help her. I don't see that the [Republican] party apparatus is there to bring him home."

By Tuesday, Gillibrand was hitting DioGuardi with talking points about Roe v. Wade, Social Security and health care. The headline on her e-mailed missive: "Congressman Joe DioGuardi is No American Idol." Not only does this make him sound like an incumbent (he's been out of office since 1989). It refers to the fact that his best celebrity asset - daughter Kara DioGuardi - came to fame on the televised talent show.

DioGuardi has ammo of his own. For one thing, he's released a commercial filled with the GOP's national talking points, attacking federal spending under the Democrats. And in Syracuse Tuesday, he called a news conference to once again highlight Gillibrand's former role as a corporate lawyer in the 1990s on the legal team of Philip Morris. She's answered this before by citing an anti-tobacco voting record in Congress. She's also cited his role as a lobbyist.

If this is the flavor of the campaign with nearly a month left, imagine how much more combative it will grow as the vote - and perhaps the poll numbers - draws closer.