Blakeman's goal: Beat Zeldin's numbers against Hochul in each region of NYS

Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman has made a "3-3-3” pitch to some donors, according to a party lobbyist: If he just does better than the last GOP candidate in the governor's race by 3 percentage points upstate, 3 points in NYC and 3 points in the metro suburbs, he can defeat Gov. Kathy Hochul.

The math sounds good in theory, analysts say. But the question is whether he can achieve it in a year when, unlike four years ago, national political winds are working against Republicans.

Back in 2022, Republican candidate Lee Zeldin garnered 30% of the New York City vote, which analysts say was a good showing in the five boroughs. But he won upstate by just 10 percentage points and the metro suburbs by 6 points — which were less than a Republican needs, in both regions, to achieve victory. In the end, he lost to Hochul by 6 points overall.

So, sure, improving on Zeldin’s numbers is key for Blakeman, the Nassau County executive. But.

"The '3-3-3' thing is a handy moniker for your strategy, but that presumes Blakeman begins where Zeldin was four years ago, and there are two problems with that," said Grant Reeher, a Syracuse University political scientist. "First, (President) Donald Trump is a helluva lot more unpopular now, and Democrats are more energized."

Four years ago, Democratic President Joe Biden was in the White House, and the ’22 midterm elections favored Republicans. Now, with a Republican in office, the history of midterm elections says Democrats will benefit, experts and polls have said.

Further, though Trump carried Long Island in the 2024 presidential election, his approval rating has dropped noticeably in Nassau and Suffolk counties. In a June poll by Siena University, just 35% of Islanders viewed Trump favorably while 58% viewed him unfavorably. Statewide, just 32% view him favorably; 63% unfavorably.

In the race for governor, the Siena poll had Hochul leading Blakeman, 52% to 32%.

Also in '22, Zeldin used the pandemic crime spike to effectively cut into Hochul’s lead as Election Day got closer. But crime has decreased since then, and affordability, gasoline prices and Trump’s decision to launch a war in Iran are among voters’ top concerns.

"Four years ago, New York Democrats were in about as bad a position as they had been in years," Lawrence Levy, executive dean of suburban studies at Hofstra University, said. "Now, it’s almost reversed."

Pataki's win

The last Republican governor of New York, George Pataki, scored an upset victory over then-Gov. Mario M. Cuomo in 1994 and went on to easily win reelection twice. Like 2022, 1994 was a huge year for Republicans nationally. But some things in the New York electorate have changed.

Among the biggest changes is that upstate — which historically favors Republicans — accounted for 47% of the election turnout. In 2022, it was 43%.

That’s largely due to out-migration, experts have said, noting that New York has lost five congressional districts since 2000 — most of the impact coming in the consolidation of a number of upstate districts.

Importantly, out-migration means the most Republican region of the state, upstate, accounts for a smaller percentage of the vote. In contrast, Democrat-heavy New York City has grown from 29% to 30% as a share of the ’22 vote, and the metro suburbs, which are politically split, from 24.5% to 26%.

Levy said Blakeman, to win, needs to garner about 60% of the upstate vote, 55% of suburbia (often defined in polls as Long Island and the lower Hudson Valley) and at least 30% of New York City.

Luke Perry, a Utica University political scientist, said some parts of that formula might be easier to achieve than others.

"It will be difficult for Blakeman to perform better than Zeldin in New York City, given the current political climate and unpopularity of Donald Trump," said Perry, who has written extensively about elections. "Zeldin taking 55% upstate — there might be some room for Blakeman to improve there."

Trump's impact

Zeldin lost seven upstate counties to Hochul in ’22 — mostly around urban areas, such as Rochester and Syracuse. In contrast, Pataki in ’94 won all but one upstate county.

Suburban swing areas helped Trump nationally in ’24 but appear to be swinging away from him now, Perry said. It’s important because, like in ’22, the White House looms as one of the biggest factors in the midterm elections.

One plus for Blakeman, Reeher said, is that though Trump has endorsed him, the Nassau executive isn’t seen as being as "tight" with the president as Zeldin was. Blakeman also could be seen as more moderate than Zeldin and has supported abortion rights.

Blakeman and Hochul each have been playing up the issue of "affordability" and rising costs, with each blaming the other party. Reeher said given that affordability is among voters’ top concerns, Republicans could have an avenue to pursue as the campaign moves into the fall. 

"I do think there is a persuasive argument out there about New York’s spending and taxing," Reeher said. "And if you had a moderate Republican that focused on that, then had some data to back him up, you might have something there."

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy