The fortunes of Blakeman and Hochul turned upward in the same year — 2021

Picture the summer of 2021.

Kathy Hochul, then New York’s lieutenant governor, was on the outs with then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Not-so-veiled chatter swirled that the Cuomos were done with her, she would be replaced by a new running mate and maybe face the end of her political career.

Bruce Blakeman, a retread Republican candidate, was supposed to get his clock cleaned in a Nassau County race. He was called a "sacrificial lamb" by Democrats early in the campaign, someone to fill a place on the ballot and lose as he had done several times before.

Hochul and Blakeman are in different political parties, have different ideas about government and different styles. But they share this:

In 2021, each was looking possibly at the political graveyard. Instead, it was a watershed for both, their unexpected, unpredicted career turnaround year.

Now, here they are, Gov. Hochul and County Executive Blakeman, major party standard bearers in the pivotal 2026 election — a matchup that couldn’t have been predicted five years ago.

"Nobody had these two on their bingo card for 2026," said Fred Thiele, a retired state assemblyman who saw many rises, falls and comebacks during his 30-year tenure in the State Legislature.

" (2021) was an unexpected opportunity for both of them," Thiele said. "Both had a certain amount of luck involved in their rise. But you have to acknowledge, both skillfully took advantage of the opportunity they were presented."

Opportunity for Hochul

Hochul was in her seventh year as No. 2 to Cuomo but his team was looking for a replacement, as Cuomo’s top aides later confirmed.

But Cuomo himself was on the ropes, under investigation for claims of sexual harassment and the use of state staff and materials to write a pandemic memoir. Facing a likely impeachment vote, he resigned in August 2021 and Hochul became the state's first female governor.

She wasn’t in the clear yet. Many Democrats and other observers thought Attorney General Letitia James would be the stronger candidate to become the party’s choice for the 2022 campaign. James did jump in the race but dropped out in December 2021 when Hochul raised far more campaign money.

Hochul still faced two Democratic primary challengers, including Rep. Tom Suozzi of Glen Cove, but won easily. She then survived a close general election against Republican Lee Zeldin in a year Democrats around the nation fared poorly.

Fast forward to 2026, her popularity ratings are up, she has a $19 million advantage in campaign cash and 26-point lead in the polls.

Win for Blakeman

Blakeman, back in 2021, became the GOP candidate for Nassau County executive when many thought incumbent Laura Curran was in good position for reelection, Thiele said.

Blakeman was a guy who had served on the county legislature but had lost or withdrawn each time he set his sights higher: state comptroller (1998), mayor of New York (2009), U.S. Senate (2010), House of Representatives (2014).

His big political turn came right after Hochul’s.

He took on the race for county executive at a time "when nobody else wanted it," Thiele said. Discounted by Dems and outspent by Curran, Blakeman rode a national red wave in November 2021 and scored a narrow victory over Curran. Campaigning during the pandemic also was a factor, as Blakeman told Newsday it was a "transformative period."

Four years later, he cruised to reelection in a year when there were few Republican bright spots across New York. He says his victory in a slightly Democratic county shows why he can win statewide this time.

"They, in some ways, were destined to meet in this moment," Basil Smikle, a former director of the state Democratic Party and now a Columbia University professor. "In both cases, they represent their parties in a state of transition."

'Underestimated'

Neal Kwatra, a political strategist and former chief of staff in the state attorney general’s office, said Hochul’s story — which also includes winning, then losing a congressional seat before becoming lieutenant governor — "brings to mind the tortoise and the hare."

"Hochul is just one of those steady folks who just keep building," he said. "This is someone whom, at various times, has been written off and who is now probably at her political zenith."

Blakeman, he said, is a "guy who has had nine lives," politically.

When Blakeman said he was exploring a run for governor, most expected the party to go with Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville). But, ultimately, Blakeman "outflanked her," Kwatra said, and she quit the race when President Donald Trump refused to endorse either one.

Hochul and Blakeman "are politicians who often have been underestimated by their party and colleagues," Kwatra said. "They’re a throwback to a time when candidates weren’t swayed by a loss on their record. Now, we live in a time of perfection and winning before you’re 35. Both of these candidates are a lesson in staying power and not giving up."

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy