Blakeman test: How closely to align with MAGA without losing swing voters

ALBANY — In a blue state where President Donald Trump’s ratings are tanking, Republican candidate for governor Bruce Blakeman is facing a question: How MAGA can he go while trying to woo independent and swing voters he’ll need to upset Gov. Kathy Hochul?

Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, will host a visit by Trump to Long Island Friday, an event analysts said is politically about firing up a Republican voter base. And while Blakeman needs a heavy GOP voter turnout in November, such events might make it harder to appeal to the political middle. They said he needs to show some "daylight" between himself and the president.

"Too much MAGA is going to do him in," Christopher Malone, a recently retired provost and political scientist at Farmingdale State University, told Newsday. He referred to the "Make America Great Again" slogan Trump and his supporters use.

"So, it’s a balancing act, a high-wire act: Needing Trump, but too much Trump will certainly sink his campaign," Malone said. "Hochul is trying to tie (Blakeman) to Trump at every turn. He has to find some daylight between himself and the president."

Just two weeks before the Trump visit, at a news conference at Republican state headquarters near the State Capitol, Blakeman told reporters he would soon do just that.

"I assure you, it’s not everything," Blakeman said when asked about agreeing with Trump on every issue.

"I’m going to come out in the next couple of weeks and talk about things that I think are important that the administration may not agree upon," he said. "I want to talk about our economy. I want to talk about immigration. I want to talk about guest worker programs. You know, our farmers and people who are involved in various industries in this state are talking to me about comprehensive immigration reform. So, I think that’s something I’m very interested in."

He then segued to say Trump wasn't responsible for New York's high taxes and rising energy bills, Hochul was.

Democrats' attacks

Democrats have countered that Trump is responsible for the rising costs of electricity because of his tariffs and the war in Iran. As for differentiating from Trump, the state Democratic Party said Wednesday: "Bruce Blakeman is leaning on Donald Trump and his signature issues" and has called himself "MAGA all the way." 

Breaking with Trump would be a change, said Lisa Parshall, a political scientist at Daemen University outside Buffalo.

Parshall said Blakeman so far has been "unwilling to speak about" any disagreements with Trump. "He’s been so closely allied with Trump and being a declared personal friend of him, it’s going to be difficult. I’m skeptical as to what type of disagreement he can have philosophically (with Trump) that will move the needle at all."

Some Republicans say Blakeman doesn’t need so much to break with Trump as start focusing more on local and state issues, instead of national ones — such as supporting federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement roundups of undocumented immigrants.

"New York is a blue state — you can’t run from the right. It’s not Wyoming," Michael Dawidziak, a veteran GOP strategist, said. "So far, we’re hearing more MAGA talking points than" swing issues.

Asked when Blakeman should shift, he said: "I think he’s behind the time to do so."

Dawidziak said one reason for Trump's appearance is that Republicans are concerned about turnout in November, adding "last year’s dismal turnout has the party spooked."

Blakeman, asked at a Thursday news conference whether Trump's low poll numbers could hurt support for Republican candidates from independents, told reporters he thought voters would see it as a "good thing" the president was visiting the county.

 "He's the most powerful person in the world," Blakeman said, "and I think that basically the fact that we have a good relationship with the president is a very positive thing."

Pursuing moderate voters

Blakeman already is mixing his messages — but just in custom mailers to voters.

In Nassau County, his ads center on transgender women and sports, masks in schools and his volunteer squad of armed citizens. In Westchester County and New York City mailers, he talks about abortion rights and tax hikes favored by Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

"Moving to the middle" used to be Campaign Strategy 101 but it’s more difficult to pull off in the age of smartphones, social media and deep red-blue political divides, said Lawrence Levy, dean of suburban studies at Hofstra University.

"Before social media, you could say one thing to one group and then go down the block and say something else to another group. Now it’s harder," Levy said, because messages are recorded and circulated faster and more widely.

He noted while Trump might boost hard core Republican turnout, New Yorkers overall give Trump dismal job ratings: 60% disapprove, 37% approve according to an August poll by Siena University. That’s a significant drop considering Trump won Long Island in 2024.

Appearing with Trump "could turn off the voters you need" to win a statewide election, Levy said. That said, he added an August event could be long forgotten by November.

"People don’t really start focusing (on elections) till after Labor Day," Levy said, "and with the speed of everything these days, things can change quickly."

Newsday's Laura Figueroa Hernandez contributed to this story.

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy