Cuomo resignation shakes up 2022 gubernatorial election

ALBANY — Andrew M. Cuomo’s sudden resignation shakes up the 2022 election campaign dramatically, opening up the Democratic side to a wave of potential candidates and changing Republicans’ line of attack against a damaged and vulnerable incumbent.

Potential candidates on the Democratic side begin with Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James. State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli has said he plans to run for reelection, but his name has been touted for governor, too.

Those aren’t the only names in the immediate mix: Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove), Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone, New York Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and, even, New York Mayor Bill de Blasio.

And it’s quite possible other Democratic names will emerge now that Cuomo is out. Or some billionaires decide to run.

On other side, Republicans’ strategy will have to adapt. The departure of Cuomo takes away perhaps the GOP’s best campaign ammunition, analysts said. But the upheaval, combined with factors such as crime gives them new political angles.

It’s guaranteed to be a wide open election next year not only for governor but possibly down ballot contests such as attorney general, comptroller and Congress.

"Now, the scramble starts," said Lee Miringoff, Marist College pollster, about the impact on all the 2022 races, not just governor.

"Open races for open offices — with no clear front-runner — don’t come around often," the pollster said. "It will attract a crowd."

Hochul, Cuomo’s lieutenant who will take charge of state government on Aug. 24, will have the advantage of being in the governor’s mansion for the next 16 months.

But she has the disadvantage of having a small base of support and facing downstate challengers who are closer physically and geographically to the wells of campaign cash in New York City.

"People are going to undersell her and that’s a mistake," said Hank Sheinkopf, a political consultant whose worked for Cuomo and other leading Democrats. "She knows how to raise money and is someone who has won tough races."

Another factor could come into play, too: Per state precedent, Hochul will have a chance to name a lieutenant governor. Analysts said she could use that to select someone that beefs up her standing in key Democratic constituencies.

The Buffalo News recently documented Hochul’s efforts to build a statewide donor base, branching out from Western New York.

But James’ profile is rapidly rising.

This year alone, she released two reports that heavily damaged Cuomo and led to his cratering public-approval ratings. One said the administration drastically undercounted nursing home deaths. The other found Cuomo had sexually harassed 11 women — the report that, combined with an impeachment proceeding in the State Legislature, triggered the governor’s resignation.

That could win her fans among Cuomo opponents. But it could simultaneously anger some key Democratic players, analysts said.

"Tish is the star of the moment," Sheinkopf said. "She has a star quality that she’ll have to hold on to for the next year."

On the Republican side, Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) is considered the front-runner because he has raised the most money and garnered the most endorsements. But he also been a vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump in a state where Trump isn't popular -- a potential drawback in a statewide contest.

Former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino contends he’s a more appealing GOP candidate in a statewide race. But he has the baggage of losing to Cuomo in the 2014 gubernatorial election.

The target of the Republicans' campaign themes, Cuomo, is leaving the stage.

Cuomo’s once-meteoric approval ratings came crashing down amid scandals centering on sexual harassment allegations, nursing home policies amid the pandemic and a controversial $5.1 million book deal he nabbed for a pandemic memoir.

His new all-time low approval rating — 28% in a recent Quinnipiac University poll — had given Republicans reason to believe they could win their first statewide election since George Pataki in 2002.

Now, they’ll have to do it against a comparatively unknown Democrat who won’t have Cuomo’s name recognition but also won’t have his baggage.

"Their best chance would have been to run against Andrew Cuomo, someone who is damaged and whose approval ratings had collapsed," Miringoff said. "Without Andrew Cuomo, their chances are dim. Then, you’re talking about a generic Republican versus a generic Democrat in a very blue state."

Sheinkopf said Republicans could use a "chaos" theme against Democrats up and down the ballot.

"Unless the Democrats move quickly to undo the chaos" caused by Cuomo’s departure, Sheinkopf said, "the Republicans will have an opportunity."

"The Dems have to move quickly to calm things down," he said, or they risk losing seats in the State Senate and Congress.

Further, there will be down-ballot impacts. For instance, a James’ candidacy would make for a wide-open contest for attorney general. If Suozzi runs, a congressional swing seat is suddenly open.

"This is creating a whole different set of political odds," Miringoff said. "Now, the scramble starts."