BUCHANAN -- Imagining New York's energy supply without the Indian Point nuclear power plants, some see dirtier air, higher utility bills and an increased risk of blackouts.

Others see a lower risk of catastrophe from a terror attack or natural disaster.

And some see a long-term opportunity for alternative sources like solar panels on Manhattan rooftops and wind farms in the waters off New York Harbor.

The two reactors in Buchanan, 35 miles up the Hudson River from midtown Manhattan, provide about a quarter of the power used in New York City and Westchester County. The plant began operating in the 1970s and licenses for the two reactors are set to expire in 2013 and 2015.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo has declared his resolve to block relicensing; his aides recently met with the plant's owner, Entergy Nuclear. "We know he wants to shut it down," said company spokesman Jim Steets.

Critics have focused for years on preventing any relicensing for Indian Point 2 and Indian Point 3. (Indian Point 1, from the 1960s, was mothballed in 1973.) Opposition spiked after the 2001 terror attacks, when one of the hijacked airliners flew right over the plant. Leaks of radioactive water, problems with emergency sirens, and the earthquake and tsunami crises at Japan's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant have intensified the battle.

Of particular concern are evacuation plans in an emergency. An evacuation of 50 miles around Indian Point -- the recent U.S. recommendation for American citizens around the Japanese plant -- would mean moving out more than 17 million people, including almost all of New York City.

The governor, who lives 12 miles from Indian Point, has said he considers the plant "an unnecessary risk."

"I'm not against nuclear power, but I am against nuclear power in this plant in this location with this density in Westchester County, with its proximity to New York City," he said.

Nuclear plants are regulated by the federal government, not the states. But Cuomo does have a weapon -- a state water permit, so far withheld, that's required for the new licenses.

Much of the concern about the effects of a sudden Indian Point shutdown comes from New York City.

A new study commissioned by the city's Department of Environmental Conservation concluded in a preliminary draft that New Yorkers would pay more, the grid would become less reliable and air pollution would increase because most replacement power would come from fossil fuels.

That draft, leaked last week, estimated energy costs would rise up to 10 percent, not including any subsidies to new energy providers, upgrades to the grid or the costs of 1,100 jobs lost at Indian Point.

Leaders from several state agencies responded with a statement saying the figures in the study could also support the conclusion that closing Indian Point "is commercially feasible, does not compromise reliability, and has little impact on cost." They said consumers would pay 5 percent more at most.

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