GOP has delicate balancing act in state budget battle

ALBANY - With a crucial election looming in November, State Senate Republicans have a delicate balancing act as Democrats consider engineering an override of Gov. David A. Paterson's veto of $600 million in public school funding.

On the one hand, Republicans could vote to sustain the veto, consistent with their united opposition this week to Democratic efforts to restore school aid of which $271 million is property tax relief that Paterson had cut from his budget.

On the other, by voting to override, the minority party would once again be relevant and could put millions in the hands of their local school districts by helping the 32 Democrats reach the required 42 votes, a two-thirds majority in the 62-seat chamber.

Minority Leader Dean Skelos (R-Rockville Centre) issued a statement Tuesday telling Democrats to "not expect or count on Senate Republicans" in a veto override.

But the political calculus of voting against school aid could persuade some Republicans otherwise, Albany observers said.

"The Democrats can argue, pure and simple, they voted against school aid," said Steven Greenberg, a Siena College pollster and former aide to two Democratic Assembly speakers. At stake in November is control of the Senate and the power to redraw boundaries for the 2012 elections. Democrats ended 43 years of GOP dominance in the Senate in January 2009.

"[Republicans] . . . would get killed in the redistricting process" if they didn't take control this year, said Jeff Stonecrash, a political science professor at Syracuse University.

The Assembly must vote to override first before it goes to the Senate where Democrats have already tried to frame the debate around what Republicans do. Their spokesman, Austin Shafran, said Tuesday: "We restored funding to schools and put money back into the hands of taxpayers through property tax relief. Now it's up to the Senate Republicans to stand up for what they claim to support."

John McArdle, a spokesman for Senate Republicans, said the election would see Democrats hammered for higher spending and taxes. "The politics of that are pretty easy in our eyes."

At least two Long Island Republicans face formidable re-election challenges, and individual senators were noncommittal when asked about a potential override on school aid.

"I don't think a decision has been made," said Sen. Carl Marcellino (R-Syosset). "We may have to do what we have to do, but we'll see."

Sen. Kenneth LaValle (R-Port Jefferson), who faces a well-funded challenger in Democrat Regina Calcaterra, said most school districts had already made budgets without the school aid restoration and may not feel much pain if it's not restored. Still, he said, "I haven't even contemplated a veto override yet."