Poll shows Hochul leads all rivals in gubernatorial race, though Stefanik closes gap slightly

ALBANY — The gap between Gov. Kathy Hochul and Rep. Elise Stefanik has slightly narrowed, according to the latest Siena Research Institute poll of registered voters.

Hochul, a Democrat, still holds a double-digit lead over Republicans Stefanik and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, according to the poll, released Tuesday. Voters favor Hochul over Stefanik 49% to 30% with 20% undecided. And Hochul’s lead over Blakeman is larger, 50% to 25% with 21% undecided.

The poll found Stefanik leads Blakeman 48 to 17% among Republican voters.

But the poll was put into the field shortly before Blakeman announced on Dec. 9 he would challenge Stefanik in the Republican gubernatorial primary. The Siena Research Institute polled 801 registered voters between Dec. 8 and 12.

In a Siena poll released in June, Hochul led Stefanik by 23 points, which shrank to 20 points in November. Hochul’s margin over Blakeman remained the same as it was in June.

Siena pollster Steven Greenberg noted that Hochul’s favorability rating was tilting slightly favorable, with 43% indicating they had a favorable view of her, while 41% had an unfavorable one and 16% had no opinion. It is only the third time Hochul’s favorability has been in positive territory this year, according to Siena’s polls.

"At the same time, Stefanik is underwater among voters who are familiar enough to have an opinion about her but is still largely unknown to more than two in five voters," Greenberg said.

With independents, Hochul leads Blakeman by 10 points and Stefanik by seven points.

The poll also found that a majority of voters don’t see Hochul or Stefanik making New York more affordable. Voters favored Hochul over Stefanik when it came to which one they believed would keep New Yorkers safe and ensuring they had access to quality health care.

Voters also don’t seem to find either candidate very inspiring. For Hochul, 48% of voters polled said they found her not very or not at all inspiring. And 43% responded the same for Stefanik.

Blakeman was largely unknown to voters surveyed as part of the poll. Only 13% indicated they had a favorable view of him, 17% indicated an unfavorable view and 70% either didn’t know him or had no opinion.

Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, who announced he intends to challenge Hochul in the Democratic primary for governor, has a similar problem. Just 17% of voters indicated they had a favorable opinion of him, with 15% indicating an unfavorable opinion. And 68% either didn’t know him or had no opinion.

The poll also found that voters supported universal free child care for infants through pre-K, paid for by increased taxes on New York taxpayers earning more than $1 million by a margin of 65% to 27%. Greenberg noted four in five Democrats support it and independents support it by a 2-to-1 margin.

"It is supported upstate and downstate, and other than Republicans and conservatives, it is supported by a majority — often an overwhelming majority — of every demographic group," Greenberg said.