New redistricting map realigns LI congressional districts to favor Dems

ALBANY — Democrats could have a chance to pick up three new congressional seats in New York while Republicans would lose four, under a new congressional map released Sunday by the State Legislature.

And Long Island has one of the seats that could be ripe for change: the 1st Congressional District at the eastern end of Suffolk County, which would go from a majority of Trump voters to Biden voters.

The map, which the legislature plans to adopt Wednesday, appears to favor Democrats in as many as 22 of the state’s 26 districts, according to analysts. That would be a sharp change from the state’s current roster of 19 Democrats and 8 Republicans and provide the party a boost in the national fight for control of Congress.

"This is a 22D-4R gerrymander — and a pretty effective one," wrote Dave Wasserman, a redistricting analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, on Twitter soon after New York released its map.

The state's effort to boost Democrats comes at a time when Republicans are trying to use redistricting to increase their congressional delegations in several southern states in a pitched battle for control of the House of Representatives in this fall’s elections.

New York is losing one seat because of changes in the latest Census, giving it 26 representatives. An upstate seat essentially is being cannibalized because the region’s share of the state’s population shrank compared with downstate. As a result, the new map shifts many of New York’s districts north and west compared with the map drawn in 2012.

On Long Island, the change is pronounced in the 3rd Congressional District, which would extend west into parts of Bronx and Westchester counties to make a new "Sound Shore" district. The Westchester communities include Mamaroneck, New Rochelle, Pelham and Rye (city and town).

Currently, the district contains parts of Suffolk, Nassau and Queens counties and is held by Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove), who is running for governor.

According to the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, which has been mapping redistricting plans, the shift makes the district even more Democratic than in 2020.

The district would go from one that favored Democrat Joe Biden over Republican Donald Trump 55% to 45% in 2020 to a 57%-43% Biden advantage, according to CUNY.

But the biggest political change appears to land at the eastern end of Suffolk County.

The Democratic-drawn map appears to sacrifice the party’s chances for unseating Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-Bayport) in the 2nd Congressional District in exchange for having a shot at winning the 1st Congressional District, currently held by Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley), who is running for governor.

Zeldin’s district would include big chunks of Islip and extend just north of Farmingdale in Nassau County, among other changes. It would go from a district that favored Trump 52%-47% to one with a 55%-44% Biden advantage, CUNY found.

Meanwhile, CUNY’s analysis shows Garbarino’s district would become more Republican: Going from 52%-48% in favor of Trump to 57%-43%.

The 4th Congressional District, held by Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-Garden City), changes very little politically. It remains a district with about 56% Biden voters to 44% Trump.

Elsewhere, the legislature’s map appears to put Republican incumbents Nicole Malliotakis (R-Staten Island) and Claudia Tenney (R-Utica) into districts that are much more Democratic while making the district of Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) safer for a Republican.

All told, analyses by Cook and CUNY suggest that Republicans would have four "safe" districts in New York: Garbarino, Stefanik and two that straddle central and western New York, one of which is held by Buffalo-area Rep. Chris Jacobs.

Lawmakers also plan to approve new district boundaries for all 63 State Senate and 150 Assembly seats. But with the Democrats in firm control in either house — holding a two-thirds "supermajority" — the fight over legislative districts hasn’t been under as much scrutiny as the state’s congressional districts.