Paladino may hurt other Republicans, say experts

ALBANY - The Republicans' drive to regain control of the State Senate, their main objective in the Nov. 2 elections, could be undermined by maverick Carl Paladino winning the party's gubernatorial nomination, according to experts.

They said moderate Republicans, who make up much of the party's membership, may be turned off by Paladino's incendiary language and stay at home instead of voting. Without their support, as well as that of people who aren't affiliated with a political party, the GOP cannot overcome Democrats' enrollment advantage in some Senate districts on Long Island and other suburbs, the experts said.

Failure to retake the Senate and Andrew Cuomo becoming governor would put Republicans in the wilderness for the next 10 years because Democrats would then control the redrawing of legislative district boundaries in 2011. Three seats separate the parties in the 62-member upper chamber.

"If Paladino really turns toxic, which seems like an eminently plausible assumption, more traditional and moderate Republicans are going to run away from him . . . that would hurt Republicans down the ballot, including State Senate," said Douglas Muzzio, a political scientist at Baruch College.

Paladino is "committed" to helping his party win back the Senate majority it lost in 2008 after 43 years, said his campaign manager, Michael Caputo. "Moderates will come out on Election Day and support us just like they did Ronald Reagan. . . . Carl's candidacy will lift all boats," Caputo predicted.

Seeking to divide the GOP and put its Senate candidates on the defense, Democrats are trumpeting reports of Paladino forwarding racist and pornographic e-mails to friends, suggesting that welfare recipients need to bathe, and calling Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, an Orthodox Jew, the Antichrist and a modern-day Hitler.

To counter that, Republicans have focused on Paladino's platform of tax cuts, less state spending and job creation, which they said they have championed for the past two years.

James Campbell, chairman of the University at Buffalo's political science department, isn't surprised both sides are trying to capitalize on Paladino. "He's a very aggressive and volatile figure. . . . It makes sense that people want to make him an issue," Campbell said.

Responding to some of the criticism, Paladino released a video Friday of former Buffalo Bills running back Thurman Thomas saying the Buffalo millionaire "is no racist." Thomas, who is black, cited Paladino's real estate projects in minority neighborhoods and support for a Buffalo homeless shelter.

Paladino also has expressed regret over the forwarded e-mails, saying they do not represent his values.

Paladino easily defeated former Rep. Rick Lazio of Brightwaters in last Tuesday's primary, drawing particularly well upstate. But only 16 percent of Republicans voted in the primary, so how Paladino, who is making his first bid for office, may fare in November is uncertain.

"Very few people voted in the Republican primary, and so, now the broader electorate will start to learn about who Carl Paladino is and come to a conclusion about whether they like him," said pollster Steven Greenberg of the Siena Research Institute.

Meanwhile, Democrats are trying to link GOP Senate candidates to Paladino, saying if they don't disavow him, they are as unfit for public office as he is.

Sen. Jeffrey Klein (D-Bronx), his party's campaign chief, said, "I would have expected some of the Republicans to run away from Paladino, but instead [Senate GOP chief] Dean Skelos embraced him."

Skelos, of Rockville Centre, neither condoned nor condemned Paladino's controversial actions. Instead, he backed Paladino's push to cut state taxes by 10 percent and spending by 20 percent in his first year. "He may deliver the message a little differently than I would, but he's correct about what needs to be done," Skelos said.

Indeed, the Senate GOP doesn't appear poised to break with Paladino as it did in 1990 with gubernatorial nominee Pierre Rinfret.

Twenty years ago, redistricting also loomed large and Democrats, led by Gov. Mario Cuomo, sought to use millionaire Rinfret's blunt language to defeat GOP senators. But Republicans, under then-Sen. Ralph Marino of Muttontown, increased their majority by one seat despite Rinfret losing badly to Cuomo.

"It's too early to tell what will happen this year," said pollster Lee M. Miringoff of Marist College. "But Senate races are usually decided on local issues and candidates' records, not who is running for governor."

STATE SENATE: RACES TO WATCH

Only three seats need to change hands for the majority to go from Democrat to Republican.

SUFFOLK (Islip and Brookhaven towns): Freshman incumbent Brian X. Foley (D) vs. lawyer and Army reservist Lee Zeldin (R)

QUEENS Incumbent Frank Padavan (R) vs. Tony Avella, a former New York City councilman (D).

NORTH COUNTRY Incumbent Darrel Aubertine (D) vs. St. Lawrence County Clerk Patricia Ritchie (R)

SYRACUSE AREA Senate vice president David Valesky (D) vs. Andrew Russo, university professor and concert pianist (R).

HUDSON VALLEY (open seat for Putnam County and portions of Westchester and Dutchess counties): Assemb. Greg Ball (R) vs. Westchester County Legis. Michael Kaplowitz (D).

BUFFALO SUBURBS Incumbent William Stachowski lost Democratic primary to Erie County Legis. Timothy Kennedy (D) but remains on the Independence Party line. They face Assemb. Jack Quinn III (R).

- Compiled by James T. Madore