Republicans expect to gain U.S. House seats in NY

WASHINGTON - With the political wind blowing in their favor, Republicans say they expect to win back some of the U.S. House seats in New York they lost in recent elections - and even hope to snatch a couple more from Democrats.

New York has eight competitive congressional contests, according to national political handicappers, making it a Republican hunting ground for some of the 39 Democratic seats the GOP needs to gain control of the House.

"New York's really going to be quite a battleground," said Isaac Wood, who tracks House races for Sabato's Crystal Ball, a political rating publication at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. But Wood said the favorable wind for Republicans could be buffeted by cross currents within the New York GOP as well as the strength of some Democrats they hope to upend.

Just as the Democrats did in 2006 and 2008, the GOP is seeking to expand the number of competitive New York races that Democrats have to defend by expending money and effort.

Last week, the National Republican Congressional Committee posted a memo targeting Democrats in the seven districts the GOP lost in the past four years, and that of four-term Rep. Tim Bishop of Southampton.

The memo added two more: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy of Mineola and Rep. Maurice Hinchey of Saugerties - both Democrats first elected in the 1990s.

The memo attacks each as a "rubber stamp" for House Democratic leaders, and hits McCarthy for her earmarks and campaign funding tied to a lobbyist recently indicted on charges of illegal campaign donations unrelated to her. McCarthy said she had no knowledge of the lobbyist's machinations.

And the New York GOP last week launched an attack on Rep. Anthony Weiner, who represents Queens and Brooklyn.

"The political environment is such that any Democrat is really vulnerable this cycle," said Tory Mazzola, a National Republican Congressional Committee aide.

Unemployment and the lagging economy are top voter concerns, polls show, fueling anger at those in power and more enthusiasm among Republicans than Democrats.

But Democrats dismissed the GOP's attempt at expanding the competitive map as wishful thinking, noting that Democrats survived GOP challenges during the past year in two special elections for upstate seats.

National political analysts and handicappers, including Charlie Cook, Stuart Rothenberg and Larry Sabato, give Democrats the edge in all but three New York House races.

"New Yorkers have repeatedly rejected Republican economic policies and this year isn't going to be any different," said Shripal Shah, an aide at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The crosswinds include Carl Paladino's upset of the GOP-backed Rick Lazio in last week's primary, and the scant name recognition for the GOP nominees for U.S. Senate, Jay Townsend and Joe DioGuardi.

"Working against Republicans in New York is their incredibly weak top-of-the-ticket slate, where they struck out in recruiting for both [U.S.] Senate races and the governor's race," Wood said.

"Democrats look to be very strong statewide in New York, kind of counter to how they're running everywhere else," Wood said.

So far, the NRCC and the DCCC have reserved TV ad time for just two upstate races, and both Mazzola and Shah declined to discuss future spending in New York House races.

Still, analysts and many political aides say Republicans probably will pick up the seat in western New York that was vacated by Rep. Eric Massa, who ousted a Republican in 2008, but quit in March in a scandal.

And GOP candidates appear to have a good chance to win in two other House races in Republican-leaning districts won by Democrats in 2006 but which are now considered toss-ups.

In Westchester, Rep. John Hall of Dover Plains trails Republican Nan Hayworth in recent polls and in fundraising. And Rep. Michael Arcuri of Utica faces a tough rematch from his 2008 GOP opponent, Richard Hanna.

The handicappers rate the other five competitive races - including the battle on Long Island's East End between Bishop and GOP businessman Randy Altschuler - as leaning or likely to favor the Democrats come Election Day.

Only Cook deems McCarthy's race against Nassau Legis. Francis Becker as competitive. He rates it "likely Democrat."