Poll: Hochul leads Zeldin by 17 points, buoyed by gains in downstate suburbs

ALBANY — Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul holds a 17-point lead over Republican challenger Lee Zeldin, according to a new poll released Wednesday — a margin that has held fairly steady since early August.

The Siena Research Institute said that among New Yorkers it surveyed, 54% favored Hochul, who’s been in office just over a year, to 37% for Zeldin, the congressman from Suffolk County.

The difference is up slightly from the 14-point lead Hochul held in Siena’s previous poll, in part because she is faring a little better now in the downstate suburbs. The margin also is similar to the 15-point lead the Democrat held in the most recent Emerson College poll.

Siena’s survey says Democrats have double-digit leads in all the statewide contests on the November ballot:

U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer leads Republican Joe Pinion, 55% to 36%, state Attorney General Letitia James leads Republican Michael Henry, 53-37, and Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli leads GOP challenger Paul Rodriguez, 53-29.

In the governor’s race, both Hochul and Zeldin enjoy overwhelming support from party members — but Democrats outnumber Republicans by a better than 2-1 ratio, building a lead for Hochul.

Zeldin’s share of Republican support has dipped, from 84% in August to 77%, but he continues to hold a three-point advantage among voters not enrolled in any party.

One shift from August helped increase Hochul’s advantage, Siena found: She went from trailing in the downstate suburbs by 3 percentage points to being ahead by 5.

“To close or even narrow a 17-point gap, (Zeldin) would need to win a far greater share of independents, solidify Republican support, as well as pick off some more Democrats,” said Steve Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena poll, in a statement.

Over the past eight weeks, Zeldin's favorability rating remained at 31% while his negative rating increased from 28%  to 33%.   Hochul’s campaign hit the airwaves after Labor Day with a series of TV ads attacking Zeldin’s anti-abortion rights position and his vote against certifying the 2020 presidential election.

Hochul’s favorability rating remained steady, with 47% having a favorable view and 40% unfavorable. Zeldin ads have attacked the Democrat as soft on crime.

Further, Greenberg noted Hochul has a “two-to-one lead, 61%-29% with women and has a narrow 48-44% lead with men.”

Siena surveyed 655 likely New York State voters from Sept. 16-25. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy