They can't do it alone

One of the first things Haiti will need after electing a new president is massive aid to help establish law and order. But foreign policy experts fear the international community, and particularly the United States, is preparing a quick exit that could doom this troubled country to another round of chaos.

Though Nicholas Burns, the undersecretary for political affairs at the State Department, declared during a recent visit that "the United States is a good friend of Haiti," a U.S. diplomat told Newsday that a United Nations peacekeeping force here may be able to leave in "a couple of years." "The capability is there" to build a Haitian police force in that time to replace the nearly 8,900 UN troops and police, said the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

In contrast, most foreign policy experts believe Haiti needs a decade to rebuild its tiny and corrupt police force - the only security apparatus apart from the peacekeepers, who have barely kept a lid on violence since populist President Jean-Bertrand Aristide was ousted by rebels 23 months ago.

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan also wants a lengthy commitment. "I hope this time the international community will go in for the long haul and not a quick turn-around," Annan said when the peacekeepers were deployed here in 2004. "It may take years." The United States pays more than one-fourth the costs of the peacekeeping mission and holds enormous sway over its size and duration.

In further warning signals, Washington last summer rebuffed UN requests for a commando unit to help the Brazilian-led peacekeepers rout armed groups. And the Pentagon has yet to answer an SOS to loan the UN mission 10 helicopters for logistics during the presidential elections.

The United States has been the key outside player in Haiti since slaves ousted French colonists two centuries ago. Since Aristide's departure, the United States has pledged a half-billion dollars in aid here, a windfall to this impoverished, shattered nation.

But after three military interventions here in the past century, the White House wants to shift responsibility to a hemispheric coalition. "The reality is that the U.S. cannot be effective in Haiti if we're seen as the only interested power," said the U.S. diplomat. "We've done it before and it hasn't worked." So far, however, the only country that's seriously stepped to the plate is Brazil, which has been criticized for its leadership of the peacekeeping force.

Many critics believe U.S. policy has failed because it was misguided. "The United States has oscillated between extremes of attention and neglect in Haiti," said James Dobbins, an envoy to Haiti under former President Bill Clinton. "The basic problem is that our focus has never been continuous."

That's partly because Haiti has no vital natural resources or ports to hold U.S. interest. But when it spins out of control, thousands of Haitian refugees board boats bound for U.S. shores. Already, nearly 1 million Haitians live in the United States - more than a third of them in the New York metropolitan area.

Instability also could increase drug traffickers' use of Haiti to transfer Colombian cocaine to the United States, drug experts warn.

"The United States can't ignore Haiti," said Jocelyn McCalla, executive director of the New York-based National Coalition for Haitian Rights, a leading Haitian advocacy group. "The two countries are stuck with each other."

Some Haitians would love to see the Yankees go home. "Why would we want the Americans back? To kick out our next president?" asked Ralph Azor, 29, an unemployed electrician from Bel Air, a neighborhood of Port-au-Prince loyal to Aristide, who claims the United States forced him out. Washington denies the allegation.

But many Haitians believe the world will forget about Haiti if the United States doesn't stay engaged.

"The main problem with U.S. involvement in Haiti has been paternalism," said Georges Michel, a political commentator on Haiti's Radio Metropole. "Treat us respectfully. Hold our hands and push us in the right direction. But don't impose solutions."