Two possible futures in 10 years

In 2021, we might take comfort that hard decisions were made to keep life manageable...

As 2020 ends, we can only look in wonder at the extraordinary strides of the past decade.

Ten years ago we stood at the edge of a precipice. Spending spiraled out of control, tax receipts dipped, jobs fled the state and nation and the rent was too damn high. We took strong and difficult actions then, and they worked. It's worth recounting those actions, if only to justify the argument that we must stay the course.

The state's Tier 6 retirement plan prevented $75,000-per-year public employees from claiming $100,000-per-year pensions via massive final-year overtime, according to every analyst not paid by a public union. Today the state's pension burden, while significant, appears manageable. That, coupled with reasonable increases in Social Security and Medicare taxes and gradual retirement-age increases adopted in 2011, placed those programs on solid footing.

The nation's Social Security fund is sound, and while Medicare costs continue to climb, wise health care management has kept the increase steady rather than suicidal.

Those moves, along with fiscal austerity on the part of the federal government (no one has been able to confirm that hell froze over) and a decrease in military spending brought by an end to our foreign wars, have put the deficit under control at 3 percent of gross domestic product. That has kept borrowing costs low, allowing businesses to get the capital they need to create jobs.

The changes to the nation's tax structure in 2012 were equitable, taxing people and corporations in a way that was both simpler and fairer. True, every political faction in the nation squealed over the changes like angry pigs, but in tough times, across-the-board squealing may be the surest sign of a fair deal. Most important, the tax changes were permanent, granting much-needed stability.

On Long Island, some targeted school district consolidation has taken place, eliminating the smallest and least efficient districts, and savings have been realized. Property tax caps, because they were coupled with spending caps on a state and local level and were not generally overridden by local voters, have brought expenses under control. Taxes in the state of New York, while still high, are manageable and, in light of the services and education residents receive, almost reasonable.

And the rent? Honestly, it's still too damn high, but progress doesn't mean perfection.

Ten years ago we had a chance to make real changes and we seized it. Now, we need only stay to the sensible and dedicated course we are on to find continued prosperity.

...Or 2021 could find an economic nightmare of insurmountable debt and runaway spending

As 2020 ends, we can only shake our heads and wonder if it is even possible to escape the complete economic collapse of our nation, state and region. Here is where we stand:

Beginning next week, all new public employees will be enrolled in Tier 11 of the state pension fund. Those workers will pay all of their own pension and health care costs, as well as the pension and health care costs of workers in Tiers 6 through 10. Each of those tiers was created over the last decade to avert the extraordinary crisis we find ourselves in, then sullied by late-night "sweeteners" delivered by politicians desperate for public union support.

Tier 11 participants can retire at age 75 if they've worked 50 years, the last two for free. Already there is talk of a Tier 12, in which public employees would sign over a grandchild in return for retirement benefits.

Age 75 was chosen because it meshes with new Social Security and Medicare age requirements passed late this year. The Social Security fund first began paying out more than it took in in 2010 and has never recovered, partly because of a "temporary" reduction in payroll taxes in 2011 that has since been reauthorized annually. Medicare and Social Security spending now combine to consume more than 100 percent of federal revenue collected, but thanks to borrowing, less than half the federal budget. The deficit stands at $28 trillion or $80,000 for each of the nation's 360 million people, most of whom could only scrape up $80,000 if they sold all their internal organs. With government-issued debt paying 16 percent and downgraded to "junk" status, default has become a real possibility.

Congress will again debate rolling back the tax cuts enacted in the first term of George W. Bush, short-term breaks created almost 20 years ago which have since been reauthorized 11 times, costing the nation nearly $10 trillion. Our continued and seemingly endless military presence in Afghanistan and Iraq has only deepened the hole.

On Long Island, politicians are again demanding school district consolidation after teacher Mabel Hubbard's sixth-grade art class decided to form its own district.

"It's about local control," said Hubbard, superintendent of the class at a salary of $231,500. "It's about the kids."

Property tax caps will again be addressed in Albany, with some legislators saying 95 percent of voters should have to approve cap overrides, since 90 percent regularly approve spending increases in their communities and schools while decrying taxes in general.

Ten years ago we had a good chance to make real changes. This year, perhaps, we have a last chance. Then again, perhaps we don't.