Thursday’s morning clouds will slowly lift off, letting the sun raise thermometers to 82 degrees, forecasters said.
But rain likely arrives Friday afternoon and chances are it will dampen the first two days of Memorial Day weekend.
Showers are expected Saturday morning, with the odds of rain 60% before noon. Those odds diminish to 30% on Sunday, the National Weather Service estimated.
At least Memorial Day itself on Monday — and thus all those barbecues — should be safe, as partly sunny skies are expected.
Dry conditions today
Though powerful thunderstorms are a threat for much of the Eastern Seaboard, from Virginia to Maine, on Thursday the experts said Long Island likely should escape and the air will even become less humid.
"Dry conditions will continue for tonight as high pressure from southern Canada continues to nose into the area at the surface," the weather service said.
Friday’s odds of rain after noon are 40%, as a low pressure system travels through just south of the region, the weather service said.
High pressure systems typically deliver clear skies as their falling air dries and cools. Low pressure systems, however, bring showers as their warm air rises, with vapors condensing into clouds and raindrops.
The low pressure system’s current track, the weather service explained, means Long Island can expect intense rain Friday night.
"There is pretty good model consensus in this period of moderate to briefly heavy rain for the first half of Friday night," the weather service said.
As much as one inch of rain may fall. Any flooding along the coasts should be minor, thanks to the recent stretch of dry weather, the weather service said.
Highs are expected to be in the upper 60s Friday, the weather service said.
Saturday morning likely will be soggy, though no more than a quarter of an inch of rain is expected, according to the weather service.
It will be breezy, and the high during the day should reach 61 degrees.
Sunday will be nearly as cool, with a daytime high of 63 degrees expected.
Swimmers will face a high risk of rip currents all weekend.
Monday’s Memorial Day should offer at least some sun, with a high of 66 degrees predicted.
Tuesday and Wednesday should be sunny and comfortable, with daytime highs reaching the low 70s.
"High pressure builds in for Tuesday with dry weather and temperatures returning back to near normal," the weather service said. "The high pressure system could hold on long enough to keep Wednesday dry as well along with moderating temperatures."