Long Island weather: Heavy rain and mild Thursday, with fierce cold to follow 

Long Island is looking at a major winter storm of mostly rain and high winds from Thursday afternoon through Friday, ushering in a fiercely cold — though dry — Christmas weekend, forecasters said.

The storm arrives Thursday afternoon amid one of the heaviest travel periods of the year. It is expected to create a mess of hazards including black ice on roads, even more traffic jams than expected, some potential flooding, power outages and winds hitting 55 mph, forecasters and travel experts said.

"The most hazardous conditions are expected Friday night into Saturday morning. There will be high winds, low temperatures and a lot of rain," said Bryan Ramsey, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

Gov. Kathy Hochul on Wednesday directed state agencies to prepare emergency response equipment in advance of the storm. Upstate, snow is expected to impact areas along Lakes Erie and Ontario beginning Friday night and continuing into Monday with total snow accumulations forecast to reach a foot or more, she said.

"New Yorkers preparing to travel this week to see loved ones over the holiday weekend should plan ahead and leave early, if possible, as we expect this weather system to create hazardous travel conditions throughout the state starting Friday," Hochul said. 

Long Island is expected to be spared the ferocious blizzards and record-breaking cold forecast for 26 states, the National Weather Service and its Weather Prediction Center said.

Thursday’s predicted daytime high of 54 degrees will help ensure little if any snow arrives, Ramsey said.

The storm could bring as much as 3 inches of rain, and winds gusting up to 55 mph along the coasts, forecasters said. The combination of high winds and rain could cause widespread to moderate local flooding and dune erosion.

There is the potential for 2 to 3 feet of water above ground level in low-lying areas, which could result in numerous road closures and cause widespread flooding of low-lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns and homes/businesses with basements near the waterfront, Ramsey said.

Seas 4 to 7 feet are expected on eastern Long Island Sound and up to 5 feet across lower New York Harbor and Gardiners Bay.

How swiftly thermometers fall on Friday evening will determine whether a "flash freeze of slushy surfaces" develops, the weather service said. Friday night temperatures are expected to bottom out at 13 degrees.

Treacherous black ice could imperil holiday drivers as temperatures plunge Friday. This hazard is expected to last through Saturday morning, the weather service said, warning that elevated surfaces, notably bridges, could turn perilous.

Almost 11 million people will be using Port Authority airports, bridges and tunnels during the Christmas and New Year holidays, the authority has said. The number of people taking off from one of its airports should spike back to 95% of the pre-pandemic holidays in 2019, it added.

Holiday drivers need to check their vehicles before departing, said Robert Sinclair Jr., senior manager of public affairs for AAA Northeast. Make sure tires are properly inflated with good tread, which means they should touch or exceed the head of George Washington on a quarter, he said. 

A fresh set of windshield wipers is a good idea, as well as topping off the windshield wiper fluid, he said. To recognize black ice, Sinclair suggested looking at the car in front of you. If spray is coming off the tires, then its probably just a puddle. No spray — that's black ice, he said.

The intense cold expected to arrive Friday will continue through the Christmas weekend, with daytime temperatures rising only to the mid-20s and nighttime temperatures sliding into the teens. 

Saturday, Christmas Eve, will be bitterly cold, with a wind chill of -5 to 10 degrees, the weather service said.

On Sunday, Christmas Day, the forecast high is 27.

On Monday, temperatures will begin ascending to above freezing, the forecasters said.