Long Island winter likely to be mild but wet, climate center says

Prospects for Long Island to see a mild but wet winter were reaffirmed Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's Climate Prediction Center, which updated its winter weather outlook. That would be for meteorological winter, which runs from December through February.

Long Island is part of a swath of the eastern United States with a 40 percent to 50 percent probability of seeing temperatures above the norm, as opposed to below or right at normal, the prediction center says.

As for precipitation, probability is tilting in favor of above-normal levels -- at 33 percent to 40 percent.

That's looking at winter overall, but Bob Smerbeck, AccuWeather senior meteorologist, breaks things down, saying the season is expected to start out fairly mild, but end up cold. The end of January could start ushering in colder days, he said, but the "brutality of the cold air" that hit last year is not anticipated.

Thanks to an active storm track along the southern United States, at times extending north up the coast, precipitation, too, is expected to be above normal, he said, "with odds favoring rain events for Long Island over snow events through the bulk of the first half of winter."

Even rainstorms, especially nor'easters bringing strong winds, can lead to beach erosion and coastal flooding.When the colder period does set in, forecasters are not expecting a repeat of the "relentless" stretch of cold and snow that came this way the past two years.

Normal snowfall at Long Island MacArthur Airport in Islip is 19.2 inches for the winter, according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center, with December averaging 5.4 inches; January, 6.7; and February, 7.1.

Monthly temperature averages at the airport are, respectively, 35.6 degrees, 30.6 and 32.8, with 33 for the season as a whole.