Summer forecast: A cool start, but high heat, drought predicted for later in the season
People take in the great weather at Jones Beach on Monday. Credit: John Roca
Summer is upon us, with the official first day of the season set to begin Wednesday at 10:58 a.m.
But, don't expect summer to get off to a hot start here on Long Island.
The National Weather Service said the first weeks of summer might actually prove to be cooler than normal, thanks to the current placement of the jet stream and air that's more humid than typical.
In fact, the weather service suggests Long Island won't touch 80 degrees until this weekend and then barely, with rain and showers in the forecast from Thursday straight through to Monday.
WHAT TO KNOW
- Summer, which starts Wednesday, is likely to get off to a cool start, meteorologists say.
- Later in the season, however, temperatures are likely to rise significantly.
- The El Niño weather pattern, which influences the jet stream, as well as rainfall and temperatures worldwide, could play a role in summer heat and rainfall.
The high for Tuesday, the last day of spring, was just 75 degrees. The weather service said the expected highs Wednesday and Thursday are 72 to 73 degrees.
"The next couple of weeks it looks like we'll stay in this temperate weather pattern," Jay Engel, meteorologist at the weather service office in Upton, said on Tuesday. "By July, the long-term outlook looks more typical. But for the first few weeks, it'll probably be a bit more humid, with the weather pattern unsettled."
That, Engel said, thanks to a jet stream that has "undulated down" farther to the south more than usual, holding cooler weather in place. For now.
Engel said what that means is "probably more chance of rain" than normal in coming weeks, with "showers on and off" — and Long Island "in and out of rain."
Hotter temperatures ahead
Weather experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center said that in the long term the region could be in for warmer-than-normal temperatures this summer, and the National Drought Monitor suggests we also could be in for an "abnormally dry" summer season.
The El Niño pattern, triggered by warmer-than-normal Pacific Ocean temperatures, will also play a role, influencing the jet stream, as well as rain, wind and temperatures worldwide. It could mean, later in the summer, higher-than-average temperatures for the Northeast, as well as drier-than-normal conditions, the weather service said.
The National Weather Service says there is a 50% to 60% chance of a warmer-than-normal July, August and September.
AccuWeather is calling for 18-22 days with 90-plus degree temperatures this summer. The 30-year average is 17 days. On average, the first 90-plus degree days in the New York City metro area don't arrive until June 2. This year, the metro area already saw two 90-plus degree days in April.
Temperatures averaged 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in 2022 for the metropolitan area, AccuWeather said. This year, it predicts temperatures somewhere between 1.5 and 2.5 degrees above the historic average.
Quieter hurricane season possible
In part due to El Niño, the NOAA National Hurricane Center is predicting a 40% chance of a "near-normal" Atlantic hurricane season this summer, and a 30% chance each of either a below-normal or above-normal season.
The El Niño pattern tends to result in fewer storms forming in the Atlantic basin, which stretches from the Caribbean up to northeastern Canada, although it could mean more for other parts of the country.
Still, NOAA, for our region, is predicting 12 to 17 named storms — with winds of 39 mph or higher — this season, including one to four hurricanes, which are storms with winds of 111 mph or higher.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
As of Tuesday, there were no storms of consequence headed for the region.
Conserving water
Of course, no matter the weather, officials are reminding Long Islanders to pay attention to water usage this summer. While Plainview Water District Superintendent Stephen Moriarty said there's no immediate concern, he said: "We're always reminding our customers on how they can conserve water." That means following the county odd-even lawn-watering ordinances, and installing low-volume and low-pressure faucets, toilets and shower heads, as well as checking for leaks.
Like Nassau, Suffolk has adopted prohibitions for watering lawns between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. and only on either odd or even days of the month.
“We have taken these measures in order to ensure the long-term sustainability of the sole source aquifer that provides 100-percent of Long Island’s drinking water,” SCWA said in a note to consumers posted on its website. The SCWA also is offering credits of up to $150 for the purchase of water-saving devices — with a maximum account credit of $250.
John Valenti, a reporter at Newsday since 1981, has been honored nationally by the Associated Press and Society of the Silurians for investigative, enterprise and breaking news reporting, as well as column writing, and is the author of “Swee'pea,” a book about former New York playground basketball star Lloyd Daniels. Valenti is featured in the Emmy Award-winning ESPN 30-for-30 film “Big Shot.”
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